【作者】 时天开；

【导师】 钱晓英；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 论文尝试通过对现代物流理论的分析,研究湖南省物流产业的发展,定量评估湖南省物流产业发展水平并对物流需求进行预测。以此为契机,提出促进湖南省物流产业发展的政策建议。首先讨论了物流概念的由来以及物流产业的范围界定。在此基础上,阐述了国内外物流产业的发展情况,并深入分析湖南省物流产业发展现状及存在的具体问题。其次,选取影响物流产业发展的中部六省的十六个经济指标,构建中部六省物流发展综合评价指标体系,并运用主成分分析法建立评价模型。以此为基础,本文得到2005年各省的主成分排名以及2001年至2005年各省物流发展综合水平排名。结果显示,在选取的四个主成分中,湖南省的第一和第二主成分均处于第三位,而2001年至2005年湖南省物流综合发展水平在中部六省中也一直处于第三的位置。这就说明前两个主成分是影响湖南省物流发展的关键。接着本文从构成区域物流需求量指标体系的两类指标,即物流规模指标和物流需求指标入手,对于前者,采取定量预测货运周转量的方法,用回归预测和灰色预测两种理论分别建模并进行模型精度对比。对于后者,论文参考了相关文献资料做了定性预测分析。预测结果说明,2010年湖南省物流规模用货运周转量表示可达2072.59亿吨公里。物流需求也将有大规模增涨。最后根据前面的研究,确定影响湖南省物流产业发展的四个关键性因素,即外部宏观经济环境、基础设施建设、教育水平、信息化发展水平。并就此提出湖南省物流发展政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper analyze logistic theory,study of the present situation of the logistics industry in Hunan Province,evulate the comprehensive of logistics of Hunan Province. Base on this evulation, how to develop the logistics industry is presented.At first, paper discuss the origin conception of logistics、the borderline the theory of logistics、the content of industry of logistic, then introduce the logistics status of abroad and at home. Analysis of the present situation of the logistics industry in Hunan Province and remaining problems.Paper select sixteen factors which influence the development of logistics in Hunan set up the system of comprehensive evaluation of regional logistics development. Use the principal component analysis method in order to build the evaluation model. Based on this we can get the position of the component and the logistics industry in Hunan. The conclusion tells us that the first and the second principal components in Hunan in 2005 are got third. the logistics industry in Hunan in 2001 to 2005 are got third too.Next,paper study the logistics volume of demand factor which composed of the logistics scale factors and logistics demandfactor.For the first one, the paper use the Viaunary linear regression and Grey dynamic model analyze method to forecast the cargo transfer volume and contrast them. For the second one, the paper consult many of documentaries to analysis it with qualitative analysis method. The conclusion is Hunan has a great development in logistic demand.Base on the study first,there are four factors which influence the development of logistics in Hunan and proposes some ways to develop the logistic of Hunan Province.更多还原