【作者】 林智敏；

【导师】 吕江林；

【作者基本信息】 江西财经大学 ， 金融学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 房地产业是我国的重要支柱产业，对国民经济有着巨大的贡献。近年来，我国东部沿海部分地区房地产市场不断升温，房价不断上涨，引起人们的广泛关注，市场上关于房地产出现严重泡沫的声音不断增强。但目前的研究多是从房地产业的表面现象出发来推测和判断房地产市场是否存在以及存在多大泡沫，缺乏理论深度。 有鉴于此，本文在国内外对房地产泡沫研究的基础上，采用理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法，从房地产泡沫的内涵、特征入手，运用当代经济学原理探究了房地产泡沫的形成机理；分析了房地产泡沫与金融风险的相互关系，并以我国近年来房地产价格和银行信贷供给数据为依据，对我国房地产价格波动与金融支持的关系进行实证研究；并根据一些房地产泡沫相关经济指标对我国当前房地产市场的发展状态进行分析，得出了我国房地产市场整体不存在普遍性的高泡沫，但部分城市的房地产市场确实存在较严重泡沫的基本结论。进而有针对性地提出当前我国防范房地产泡沫引致的金融风险的政策建议。 本文共分四个部分： 第一部分以房地产泡沫相关理论为依据，首先对泡沫、泡沫经济与房地产泡沫的内涵做了简单介绍，然后分析了房地产泡沫的形成机理和具体成因及可能引发的金融风险。 第二部分分析房地产与金融行业的内在关系。在剖析银行体系自身存在的脆弱性的基础上，结合上个世纪末日本金融危机和泰国房地产泡沫的具体案例，通过对房地产泡沫与银行风险的传递效应分析，充分论证了房地产泡沫与银行风险的相关性。 第三部分是在上述理论研究的基础上，对中国目前的房地产市场状况与金融风险进行了实证分析。从房地产市场的生产层面、交易层面和融资层面，借助房价增长率／GDP增长率、房地产开发贷款／全部银行贷款及相关增长率、房地产开发投资／固定资产投资、房价收入比、空置率等房地产泡沫评价指标，对我国房地产市场状况进行了统计分析。 第四部分，在上述分析的基础上，针对中国房地产业发展情况提出了抑制泡沫，防范金融风险，促进房地产业健康发展的一些政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Real estate industry is an important dominant industry in China, which has tremendous contribution to the national economy. In recent years, the real estate markets in some areas of east coast were lasting prosperity, the price of real estate rose unceasingly, as arouses people’s universal attention, the voice of serious bubble that appears in the market is gradually strengthen. While the recent research mostly extrapolates and estimates that the real estate market whether has bubble just from the superficial phenomena of real estate industry, which lacks theory depth.Taking this into consideration, on the basis of the research about real estate bubble in the home and abroad, using the theoretical analysis and the empirical analysis methods, starting with the connotations and the characteristics of real estate bubble, this dissertation researches into the formational elements of real estate bubble from modern economic point of view; analyzes the relations between the real estate bubble and financial risk, and takes the price of real estate and the bank credit supplies data of our country in recent years as the basis, conducts empirical research to the relationship of the price of Chinese real estate undulation and the financial support; and carries on an investigation into the current real estate market development conditions according to some correlation economic indicators of real estate bubble, draws the basic conclusion that our real estate market as a whole does not have the universal high bubble, but the partial city real estate markets do have serious bubble. Then some policies and suggestions are pertinently brought forward to keep real estate bubble from causing financial risk.This dissertation is divided into four parts:The first part takes the correlative real estate bubble theories as the basis, primarily makes a simple introduction to the connotations of bubble、bubble economy and real estate bubble, then analyzes the formation mechanism and the concrete causes of real estate bubble and the possible financial risks.The second part analyzes the intrinsic relations between real estate industry and financial industry. At the basis of explaining the existing vulnerability of the banking system, the dissertation discusses the correlation between real estate bubble and banking risk through the passing effect analysis, combining the concrete cases about the Japanese financial crisis on last century’s end and the Thai real estate bubble.On the basis of the above theory research, the third part carries on the empirical更多还原