【作者】 张明媛；

【导师】 袁永博；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 土木工程管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 城市作为巨大的承灾体，日益成为国际社会防灾减灾的中心和重点。城市灾害的多样性、频繁发生与其造成的各种损失和破坏的严重化趋势，已经对城市经济社会发展构成重大威胁，城市对灾害的预测、防御、救助及灾后恢复的综合能力，直接决定了城市可持续发展的基础和能力。 以往的关于承灾体承灾能力的研究是将目光放到具体的承灾载体上，如建筑物等，并通过对致灾因子强度分析，判断承灾体的承灾能力强弱。本文将从系统的角度对城市这一巨大的承灾体的综合承灾能力进行研究探讨，并认为城市系统的特征、结构和运行方式已经决定了其承灾能力的大小，而不是依靠致灾因子决定的。 本文欲以城市可持续发展为指导思想，根据对城市灾害风险研究的综合分析以及灰色系统理论，建立城市复杂系统灾害相对承载力评价模型。关于城市复杂系统灾害相对承载力测评中的指标揉合了城市防灾、救灾、恢复三方面因素，同时将系统行为主体——人的特征与承载基体——经济子系统的特征有意的进行区分，试图找出防灾能力、救灾能力、恢复能力的耦合关系以及人与经济子系统的相互作用关系。 可持续发展是系统内外的协调发展。利用灰色系统理论对建立的灾害相对承载力模型中的基础经济类要素的协调性进行分析，并以大连市为例，得出该市的经济发展与防灾减灾建设投入协调稍差的结论，建议其加快防灾减灾的建设，以降低灾害发生造成的经济损失。 本文提出城市复合系统承灾能力由刚度、恢复力和发展力构成，并根据系统动力学理论，找出刚度要素、恢复力要素、发展力要素之间的因果关系，形成短期反馈和长期反馈并存的城市承灾能力发展模式。找到了以城市基础设施建设为核心的多条反馈回路，为指导城市减灾管理提供依据。 城市减灾管理是集体制、结构和运行为一体的一项复杂的系统工程，灾前预防、灾中救助和灾后再建设工作的协调互补是很难完成的一项任务。随着减灾模式的不断完善，职能分配的不断合理化、达标化以及现代信息技术的合理应用，相信减灾管理工作会做的越来越好，城市的承灾能力会越来越强。更多还原

【Abstract】 The urban is getting more and more central and important to international society disaster defense and reduction as a huge disaster bearing body. The diversity of frequent urban disaster as well as the severity of lost and damage have threatened to the development of urban economic society. The integrative capability of disaster forecast, defense, salvation and resilience directly reflect on the base and capability of urban sustainable development.The existent research on the disaster carrying capability of disaster bearing bodies focused on the materials such as buildings and estimated the capability through analyzing intensity of disaster inducing factors while this paper discusses it by taking urban as a huge disaster bearing body with systems angle of view. And the difference is that the capability is made up of characteristic, structure and operating but not the disaster inducing factors.The paper models the estimation of complex system disaster relative carrying capability based on the integrative disaster risk analysis and gray systems theory and also leading by the rudder of sustainable development. The estimating index of the capability consist three aspects: disaster defense, disaster salvation and resilience and at the same time distinguish intentionally the characteristic between the human beings and economic sub-systems for trying to find out the coupling relationship among the capability of disaster defense, disaster salvation and resilience and interactional relationship between human beings and the economic subsystem.Sustainable development is the coordination development inside and outside of systems. This paper analyzes the coordination of the basal economic factors in the disaster relative carrying capability model using the gray systems theory and takes Dalian as an example to get the result that the coordination between economic development and devotion of disaster defense and reduction was not well so it is suggested that Dalian should expedite construction for disaster defense and reduction to reduction the economic lost.This paper suggests that the urban disaster carrying capability consists of stiffness, resilience and developing capacity, and finds out the causality which formed a mode of short and long time feedback coexistence from the factors based on system dynamics and also many feedback loops all centralizing the urban infrastructure construction to supervise the disaster reduction management.Urban disaster reduction management is a complex systems engineering take the system, structure and operation as a combo. It is a difficult work to coordinate defends before disaster,更多还原