【作者】 林祥金；

【导师】 李静；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 土木工程管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 可行性研究是工程项目前期最重要的问题之一，其成败可能是计划的疏漏或方案考虑不周，然而，绝大多数是因为未预见风险的出现。通过对工程项目进行方案对比及关键因素的分析，可找出工程项目中潜在的风险，为下步项目实施指明方向。 文章首先引入了一种新的交通结构物，通过与其它跨海通道的技术比较，明确其主要优势所在。随后通过蒙特卡罗模拟法对其进行经济分析并评价，确定工程费用可接受范围。其次，在系统阐述风险分析的基础上，参考了风险分析的主要方法。结合悬浮隧道的前期策划特点及整体施工过程，构建了悬浮隧道风险管理评价指标体系。而后通过层次分析法，计算出悬浮隧道各主要风险因素的权重值并进行排序，提出风险管理措施。最后，介绍了人工神经网络的主要特点及设计过程，在建立简单BP网络风险预测模型的基础上，结合前面计算出的风险因素权重值，对悬浮隧道风险因素进行网络训练，并利用训练好的网络对悬浮隧道的总体风险值进行预测分析。 文章对悬浮隧道的可行性及风险管理进行深入研究，目的是想找出悬浮隧道工程中存在风险因素，并通过几种风险分析工具的具体应用，解决工程项目风险分析中定量化研究问题，为管理者提供决策依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The feasibility study is one of the most important stages in the engineering project earlier period, the reasons of its success or failure maybe the oversight of the plan or the not fully consideration. However, the major reason is the appearance of the unforeseen risks. Through the contrast of the plan and the analysis of the key aspects, we can find the latent risk in the engineering project, and the direction for the next step of project implementation.This article first introduces the floating tunnel’s basic concept, through comparing with the other cross sea channels technologies, we can determine its main superiority. Then it carries on the economic analysis and the appraisal using the Monte Carlo simulation method, and determine the scope project expense maybe accepted. Next, in the system elaboration risk analysis foundation, and has referred to the risk analysis’ main method, unifies the floating tunnel the earlier period to plan the characteristic and the whole construction process, we established the risk management appraisal target system of the floating tunnel. And then calculates the each main risk factor’s weights by the AHP method, finding the answering measure of the risk management through the sort. Finally, this introduces the artificial nerve network’s main characteristic and it’s design process. In the foundation of the simple BP network’s establishment and the risk factors’ weights, the paper carries on the network training to the floating tunnel risk factor, and using the network which has trained fully to forecast the floating tunnel overall risk value.The article conducts a deep research to the floating tunnel feasibility and the riskmanagement, the goal of it is to discover the risk factors in the floating tunnel, and solve the quantitative research question in the project through several kinds of risk analysis tools, it can provides the policy-making basis for the administrator.更多还原