上海房地产泡沫分析

【作者】 陈华；

【导师】 李序颖；

【作者基本信息】 上海海事大学 ， 产业经济学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 自从进入21世纪以来，上海房地产业进入了一个高涨的发展过程，房地产业的增加值占GDP的比重从2000年的5.5％上升到2004年的8.36％。作为上海经济支柱产业之一的房地产业对上海国民经济的作用勿庸置疑。但是，进入2003年以后，房屋销售价格连续几年快速增长，尤其在2005年初，上海第一季度房屋销售价格上涨达19.1％，上涨幅度之大令人吃惊，房地产价格的持续快速上涨，引起人们对上海房地产业的极大关注，业内外对上海房地产泡沫的争论愈加激烈。本文就以上海房地产的泡沫问题作为出发点展开讨论，论述了房地产泡沫的形成，发展及其危害，研究了目前上海房地产泡沫的情况，设计计量经济模型对上海房地产泡沫进行测度，然后分析了上海房地产泡沫是如何形成的，并在肯定上海对房地产宏观调控的效果之后，提出了一些治理的措施。 本文首先介绍了关于泡沫的一些概念，并对经济泡沫和泡沫经济的含义进行了界定，接着对历史上一些著名的房地产泡沫事件进行了介绍，并对房地产泡沫进行了理论分析以及对目前房地产泡沫的研究方法进行了综述。 然后对上海房地产市场的泡沫问题进行了初步研究。这里先介绍了上海房地产市场的状况，接着讨论了目前房地产业内外对上海房地产市场泡沫的争论，然后利用传统的房地产泡沫测度方法对上海房地产泡沫进行了检验，初步结果发现上海住宅市场的确存在泡沫。 为了进一步考察上海房地产泡沫情况，这里主要讨论上海商品住宅市场。论文以房地产供求为出发点，利用计量经济学理论建立计量经济模型，模拟上海商品住宅市场的供给、需求以及价格的走势，并预测未来上海商品住宅的发展情况。分析结果发现上海商品住宅市场泡沫形成于2003年，并在2003年到2005年第一季度不断膨胀，主要表现为房地产价格泡沫，从2005年下半年到2007，主要表现为商品住宅空置泡沫，当然在国家宏观调控的有力进行下，上海商品住宅泡沫从2008年开始逐步被消化，到了2010年，商品住宅市场供求基本上达到平衡，商品住宅价格走势稳定。 最后，论文对上海房地产泡沫形成原因进行了分析，讨论了宏观调控对上海房地产市场影响，并提出要进一步加强宏观调控，采取可行措施，巩固治理成果，更多还原

【Abstract】 Shanghai real estate sector has entered prosperous stage since the 21st century, the proportion of the added value of real estate sector in GDP has risen from 5.5% in 2000 to 8.36% in 2004. As the underpinning industry of Shanghai economy, real estate sector is vital. But since 2003, housing sales witnessed rapid price growth for years. Especially in the first quarter of 2005, the growth of housing price has reached the surprising rate of 19.1%. Much concern has arisen on the real estate sector with more insiders and outsiders on the topic of bubble phenomena. The thesis would start discussion on the real estate bubble problem, discuss the shape, the development and the bad effect of the real estate bubble and analyze the present real estate condition. Econometric models would be designed in order to estimate the bubble in Shanghai real estate sector. Then, the thesis would analyze the formation of the real estate bubble of Shanghai and put forward some effective measures after analyzing the effect of macro control in Shanghai.In the first place, the concept of bubble would be introduced, and definition of economy bubble and bubble economy would be also delivered. Afterwards, some notable real estate bubble stories would be enumerated. The theoretical analysis of real estate bubble would be processed and the present research method about real estate bubble would be also summarized.Afterwards, pilot study of the Shanghai real estate bubble would be conducted. The present status of Shanghai real estate market would be first introduced, and discussion of the present bubble of Shanghai real estate would be also showed. Traditional bubble measures about the real estate would be used in the inspection of Shanghai real estate bubble with the consequence of existing bubble problem in Shanghai residential housing market.Further attention would be paid on the Shanghai real estate bubble mainly更多还原