【作者】 易福金；

【导师】 应瑞瑶； 徐晋涛；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 退耕还林工程实施已有六年时间，该工程已经完成了国家林业局规划面积的一半以上，其投资总额也达到1030亿元。然而，随着工程的不断推进，退耕还林的实施目标已经由当初的生态治理不断扩充并延伸到农村发展的方方面面，其目标的多元化所带来的实施难度增加、政策的剧烈波动等问题加之其处在工程实施的中期，这些因素决定了对该工程进行中期的评估的必要性，并以此作为下一阶段后续政策调整的依据。在退耕还林承担的众多目标中，促进农村剩余劳动力转移，增加农民非农就业收入的地位十分重要。因为，农村劳动力的非农就业状况关系着农民增收，城市化进程的推进等一系列国家关于“三农”问题具体政策的实施方向。从目前的研究来看，现有的文献还没有系统探讨非农就业和退耕还林关系的相关研究，大多数只是在对该工程所承担目标的简单分析中有所涉及。本文将以退耕还林和农村劳动力非农就业的关系为出发点，着重探讨该工程对非农就业人数和收入的影响，并希望以此作为今后退耕还林工程评估的一个角度来重新审视赋予它多重目标的合理性。同时，本文也是将规范地项目评估法应用于工程评估中的有益尝试，并为以后更细致的评价退耕还林经济效果奠定了良好的方法基础。最后，本文得出的基本判断能为今后完善退耕还林的配套政策有所启发。 本文采用中国科学院农业政策研究中心2003年的退耕还林调查数据和2005年的跟踪调查数据，用改进后的“倍差法”(DID)估计退耕还林工程对农户的非农就业影响，主要是测算该工程对外出务工人数和非农就业收入的效应。研究发现尽管对于农民家庭来说，他们有激励增加非农就业的人数，而实际采取行动的只占很小的比例，并且，计量结果表明退耕还林对每户劳动力的外出务工人数没有显著的影响。但是，该工程对非农就业的收入有显著的促进作用，而这方面的效果与工程增加了已外出务工人员的劳动时间有关。今后仍应控制工程的规模，进一步精简和明确工程实施的目标，致力于改善工程质量的后续政策制定。更多还原

【Abstract】 It has been six years since the Sloped Land Conversion Program (SLCP) began to be actualized in 1999. Until now, the government has completed more than half of the plan constituted by the State Forest Bureau and the amount of the investment came to 103 billion Yuan. The aim of SLCP has changed from renewing the environment to multi-aim such as increasing income, rectifying the agricultural structure and so on. This change has increased the difficulty of implement of SLCP, enormous fluctuation of plan. So it is necessary to make an evaluation to SLCP in different dimensions. The effect of boosting the off-farm job from SLCP is very important since it is the linkage among SLCP, increasing income and urbanization which are the central contents in issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers. Presently, there is no systemic literature concerning between SLCP and off-farm job of fanners. This paper evaluates the impact of SLCP to the change of off-farm job of farmers, and that could help the government review the multi-aim to SLCP. The method we used in the paper is also an attempt to evaluate social program in China, and we hope give the future detailed paper some illumination.The data we used in this paper comes from the survey directed by Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy in Chinese Academy of Science in 2003 and 2005. We estimates the impact of SLCP to the number to off-farm worker and the change of income from off-farm job through the improved DID method. The result represents that although there is positive effect to income of the off-farm, but there is little impact to the number of off-farm workers. We consider that there is not enough stimulation for the family who take part in SLCP to increase the number of off-farm worker. The central government should decrease the number of SLCP aims in the next step in order to exert its real environmental effect, not countryside development effect.更多还原