【作者】 尤毅；

【导师】 都洪基；

【作者基本信息】 南京理工大学 ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 论文对电力系统中配网可靠性评估进行了分析和研究，提出了考虑线路故障后电压跌落及母线电压骤降情况下导致敏感负荷停运的配网可靠性评估方法，并在此基础上运用贝叶斯网络法确定与负荷可靠性相关度最大的元件，为配网规划和改善配网可靠性提供了有益参考。论文研究的主要内容如下： 1) 对配网可靠性常用的评估方法故障模式影响分析法(FEMA)进行了研究，并以此为基本原理，采用最小路法化简网络结构，程序结果表明，采用最小路法能运用于不同网络结构，只要确定网络的最小路矩阵，就能快速评估配网的可靠性。 2) 研究了配网可靠性潮流计算方法。配网潮流计算是进行配网全面可靠性评估的基础。由于配网结构不同于输电网，故不能采用广泛用于输电网潮流计算的PO节点法。论文研究了基于支路电流的前推回推法计算配网潮流，结果表明该方法具有很好的收敛性。 3) 研究了计及母线电压骤降的情况下，判断敏感负荷停运的方法，并根据故障域的计算方法计算敏感负荷相关的停运次数和停运时间。 4) 采用基于贝叶斯网络的方法确定配网负荷的最大可靠性相关元件。通过计算各元件相对于负荷点的正常工作概率，确定与负荷可靠性相关性最大的元件。 5) 在上述研究结果的基础上，对实际的配电网络进行了全面的可靠性评估。所得的结果更符合实际，考虑的因素也更全面，对改善配网可靠性具有实际的指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper does some research on the evaluation of distribution network reliability, which put forwards to a method to evaluate distribution network reliability considering load-off in the condition of voltage drop when a feed is in fault or the voltage sag of bus bar. The bayesian network is also used to decide which feed is most important to the reliability of distribution network. The main content is as follows:1) On the basis of FEMA(failure models and effect analysis), it is shown that the minimal path method is able to evaluate distribution network reliability quickly and exactly, not taking into the structure of the network.2) Power flow calculation for distribution network is very important to the reliability evaluation. The back/forward sweep algorithm based on branch current is proved effective.3) Paper proposes a method to judge whether the sensitive load is load-off under the voltage sag of bus bar. According to fault area algorithm , it can calculate the frequency and time of load-off.4) Paper presents to using the bayersian network to confirm which feed is most important to the reliability of distribution network.5) On the basis of research above, the paper makes an all-round evaluation of a practical distribution network. The results show that it more agrees with the facts and takes into more factors. So the all-round evaluation can be used to improve the reliability of distribution network effectively.更多还原