【作者】 霍佳；

【导师】 聂华；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 林业经济管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 本文首先搜集整理了世界一些发达国家森林资源的历史数据，并根据这些数据做出发达国家森林资源的变动趋势图，从而对世界发达国家森林资源的变动趋势所呈现出的“L”字型做出实证分析，然后分别运用产业结构演进原理、需求收入弹性原理、边际效应、经济周期等微观、宏观经济学原理，从经济学的角度论证发达国家森林资源所呈现出的这种“L”字型变动趋势的客观必然性。 接着，通过对我国森林资源历史数据的加工整理，利用所得出的结论，从实证角度验证我国林业目前的发展正处于“相持阶段”这一说法的合理性，及其出现的客观必然性，并运用经济学相关原理从经济学角度给予论证。同时借鉴上一部分对发达国家森林资源发展趋势的分析，将我国与发达国家做出比较分析，以期在获得对我国林业发展现状全面系统地了解的基础上，明确今后我国林业的发展方向，并对林业发展政策的制定给予帮助。 最后，根据我国森林资源现在的状况以及我国林业目前所处的阶段，对我国相应林业政策的制定提出建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the first part of the paper, through drawing a forestry resource trending line of some developed countries which is based on the historical and current forestry resources data of these developed countries, the paper show us that the forestry trending line of developed countries is curving like the letter "L", which means the forestry resources moving trend in developed countries goes like follows: a sharp decrease in first then remaining at a small increase rate for quite a long time, after the withholding period, show a obvious increase.Then the paper gives a comprehensive analysis both from empirical & theory point to prove that the "L" trending line of forestry development is reasonable and objective. The Micro & Macro Economic basic theories used are as follows: industrial evolution principles, demand income elasticity theory, marginal effects, etc.In the third part, with the historic and current data of our country’s forest resources ,the paper analysis the current forestry status of our county from the empirical way and then using the same Economic theories as above mentioned to give a better evident that our current forestry status is belonging to the consolidation stage, additionally, through compared our country’s forestry developing trend with that of developed countries, the paper want to give a comprehensive analysis and clearly understanding of the our country’ forestry develop period and the develop trend in will go in order to give some support on the forestry policy establishment.Finally, standing on the current forestry status and the present develop stage of our country that proved above, the author would like to give some suggestions & recommendations on the government forestry policy establishment accordingly.更多还原