【作者】 万红兵；

【导师】 杨成炎；

【作者基本信息】 长沙理工大学 ， 会计学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 企业并购(兼并与收购的简称)是市场竞争的产物。并购机制使得资源不断得到优化，企业乃至整个国家的竞争力因此而增强。在我国，并购从上世纪80年代才起步，到目前已是一浪高过一浪。并购估价是并购过程中关键的一环，其理论方法却没有伴随并购浪潮而前进。由于我国的市场经济体制还不是很完善，并购在我国的历史还不到30年。并购估价还很不成熟，绝大部分并购都是采用的最原始的成本法进行估价，极大地低估了那些无形资产较高的企业的价值。市场法也只能根据可比企业估算出目标企业的大致价值，至于可比企业是否恰当，可比企业本身的价值是否能够准确计算，都是市场法所无法回避的缺陷。收益法中的现金流量法到目前为止是最合理的一种方法，但是它也忽略了期权的价值以及并购的协同效应。这些方法都没有考虑到并购其实是一种博弈，博弈就是要考虑到对方的行动以及己方的行动对对方的影响。各自掌握的信息不同或者各自的特征不同都会导致不同的结果。这是以前的定价方法所没有解决的。本文研究的主要内容是如何给目标企业进行合理的定价，让并购各方都从并购中获得利益，使相关者利益最大化。 本文在绪论里先阐述了本文研究背景、内容、方法、创新等，接着回顾了并购估价的一些理论基础，以及现行的几种估价理论。笔者认为，每种估价方法都是从某个侧面反映企业的价值，正确利用每种方法得出的结论都是一种可以利用的信息。将这些方法人为地分割开来，不利于全面评估企业的价值。本文在分析这几种估价理论优缺点及适用条件的基础上，综合利用这几种理论，通过引入博弈论建立了并购估价博弈模型。根据各自掌握的信息程度，在所能够预测的企业的几种价值之间进行博弈。分析的结论是：信息越完全，参与博弈的企业数越多，最终的成交价格越趋向于目标企业的真实价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 The enterprise’s Merge and Acquisition(M&A) is the product of the market competition. The mechanism of the M&A enable the resources unceasingly obtain the optimization, therefore the enterprise and even the entire national competitive ability strengthens. In our country, M&A starts from 1980s, and so far surges are wave upon wave. The valuation of M&A is an essential link in the process of M&A, but it actually has not followed the tide of M&A. Because our country’s market economy system is not very perfect, M&A hasn’t been 30 years. The valuation of M&A isn’t mature. The major of the valuation is cost methods which enormously has underestimated enterprise’s value of these higher intangible assets. The market methods also can estimate the approximate value of the goal enterprise according to the compared enterprise. As for whether the compared enterprise is appropriate, whether the value of the compared enterprise can accurately calculate, all is the flaw which the market method is unable to avoid. So far the discounted cash flow is the most reasonable method in the income methods, but it has also neglected the coordination effect of M&A as well as the option’s value. These methods had not all considered that M&A actually is one kind of gambling. Gambling one must consider opposite party motion as well as the influence of the action himself to opposite party. The different information respectively grasps or respective different characteristic can cause the different result. This problem wasn’t solved by the before valuation method. The main content of this article is to study how to value the goal enterprise. Let all quarters of M&A obtains the income from M&A. It causes benefit maximization of stake holders.In the introduction this article first elaborates the background, the content, the methods, the innovation and so on, then reviews some rationales of M&A, as well as some popular valuation theory. The author thinks that, each valuation method reflects enterprise’s value from some side. The conclusion which each method obtains is a useful information. Artificial division of these methods is disadvantageous to the comprehensive enterprise valuation. This article analyses good and bad points of kinds of enterprise valuation theory and their suitable conditions. Based on the analysis, comprehensive utilization these kinds of methods, establish a gambling model through the introduction game theory. According to information degree which respectively grasps, gambling begins between enterprise’s several kinds of values which can be forecasted. The analysis conclusion is: the more information is complete, and the more participates in gambling, the final deal price more tends to the goal enterprise’s real value.更多还原