【作者】 吴淑利；

【导师】 吴唤群；

【作者基本信息】 长沙理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 《国家高速公路网规划》出台,计划到2020年完成总规模约8.5万公里高速公路,并与目前的国道主干线共同构成国家骨架公路网。但由于国家拿不出足额的建设资金,地方政府也不可能筹措到足额的资金来进行建设,如何筹措足额资金来进行公路基础建设是一个需要迫切解决的问题。本文通过分析内资BOT模式,提出内资BOT模式为目前解决资金紧缺问题的最佳选择。但由于内资BOT项目投资大,回收期长等,使得国内民营投资者在进行BOT项目投资时,要承担很大的风险。本文旨在借助全面风险管理理论,建立一个通用的风险管理系统,期望能为内资BOT高速公路项目中的投资商提供决策和有效的风险管理。本文在公路工程项目风险识别中,按风险阶段性和原型理论总结出了公路工程项目风险结构模型;在公路工程项目风险度量中,本文运用了基于模糊理论和效用理论的模糊效用风险度量法,来解决损失概率、损失值和风险值具有模糊性和风险度量受项目风险管理者主观因素影响的问题;在公路工程项目风险评价中,本文将模糊效用风险评价法和层次分析法结合起来评价投资商的风险;在公路工程项目风险处理中,本文根据评价结果来分析决策是否投资和如何进行有效风险管理。此外,本文以国内第一条内资BOT项目—襄荆高速公路为例,按照公路工程项目风险管理的过程进行了实证分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 The layout of the national high speed road net was passed ,which has 0.85 million kilometers, will be completed in 2020 in plan. Because there isn’t enough money to build it by the government, how to finance is a difficult that must be solved immediately.The BOT model with folk capital is the best choices to work out the problem which was put forward after it was analyzed in this paper, because of the enormous funds to cost and a long time to gain the income in highway construction, the folk investor to invest the BOT project will be faced with great risks.The theory of the comprehensive risk management is used to build a all-purpose risk management system to provide a decision and a efficient risk management method for the folk investor in this paper. In the part of road engineering project risk identification, the table of road engineering project risk identification was summarized according to the phase of risk and the Proto type theory in this paper. In the part of road engineering project risk measurement,the method of fuzzy and utility risk measurement based on fuzzy theories and utility theories was used in this paper to deal with the problem that loss probability、loss value and risk value have fuzzy feature and project risk manager’s subjective factors have effects on risk measurement; In the part of road engineering project risk evaluation, the method of fuzzy and utility risk evaluation and the AHP was combined in this paper to evaluate the risk. In the part of road engineering project risk handling, whether or not to invest and how to manage the risk efficiently were analyzed in this paper. In addition, xiangjing highway was taken for example to analyze the risk According to the course of road engineering project risk management.更多还原