【作者】 王艳平；

【导师】 曹树刚；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 安全技术及工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 我国是煤炭生产大国，年产量居世界首位。但同时煤矿的安全生产形势非常严峻，尤其是矿井瓦斯爆炸事故已经成为中国煤矿安全的“第一杀手”，引起政府的高度重视。为了对瓦斯爆炸进行有效的控制，本文从分析瓦斯爆炸危险源风险的基本因素入手，综合国内外大量相关资料和规范规定，并结合矿山具体情况，提出基于危险源理论的煤矿瓦斯爆炸和涌出风险预警系统。加强危险源预警管理，实现生产过程中动态风险评价，促使煤矿安全管理从事后分析型向事前预防型战略转变，从而尽可能的降低事故发生率。 论文首先分析了本课题研究所涉及到的多种学科研究现状，将危险源理论与煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故相结合，从三类危险源思想从固有危险源、诱发危险源和人的因素3个方面分析了瓦斯爆炸基本条件的各致灾因素，阐述了煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故的模型。 其次，本论文对煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险预警系统进行研究，设计了预警系统的工作总流程和矿业分公司瓦斯爆炸风险预警系统的工作流程。应用模糊数学综合评价方法，结合中梁山南矿具体情况，构建了煤矿瓦斯爆炸危险源风险预警指标体系，建立相应的模糊综合评价数学模型，通过风险评价确定事故发生的危险等级。论文结合中梁山南矿5个采煤工作面实际生产情况，进行了危险源风险预警评价，判断其合理性和安全性。 最后，利用人工神经网络极强的非线性动态处理问题的能力与MATLAB在数值计算方面的优越性相结合，设计了煤矿瓦斯爆炸固有危险源中瓦斯涌出量的时间序列预测模型，并用实例加以验证，结果表明模型精度很高，在瓦斯浓度有可能达到危险极限前给出预警，使现场工作人员能够提前采取防范措施，防止事故的发生，为瓦斯涌出预测技术的进一步发展提供了新思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is a big producer of coals and the annual production stands first on the world list, However, the safe situation of the coal mine is very grim, especially the gas explosion accidents have been as the NO.1 killer of coal mine safety in china, which our government has a high regard to. In order to control gas explosion efficiently, through summarizing large numbers of domestic and overseas relevant data and standard stipulations, and combining the specific situation of the mine, this article has put forward the risk forewarning system of gas explosion and gas discharge in the coal mine based on hazard theory from analyzing radical factors of gas explosion hazard risk. Strengthening forewarning administration of hazard to realize dynamic risk evaluation during produce process, so that can make strategic changes of mine safe management from latter-analysis to prevention beforehand, and can reduce accidents probability.Firstly, analyzing present researches on some subjects referring to this study and combining the hazard theory and coal mine gas explosion accidents, the paper has analyzed the basic condition of gas explosion and set forth the model of coal mine gas explosion accident from 3 aspects, namely, inherent hazard, temptable hazard and human factor, in the spirit of three class of hazard.Secondly, researching on risk forewarning system of gas explosion in coal mine, the author has designed total flow for risk forewarning system work and flow for risk forewarning work of gas explosion in coal mine of a subsidiary company in mining industry. Applying fuzzy comprehensive evaluation technique as well as combining the specific situation in the south mine of zhongliangshan, the author has structured the risk evaluation index system of gas explosion in coal mine and established corresponding flow chart of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation technique to identify the danger classes of accidents. Connecting with the south mine of zhong liangsha’s 5 coal mining working faces, the paper evaluates risk forewarning of the hazard and judges the rationality and security.Finally, combining the formidable non-linear dynamic processing question ability of neural network and MATLAB’s superiority in numerical computation, the author has designed the predicting model based on time series of inherent hazard of coal mine gas explosion for gas discharge amount and performed with examples to confirm. The results show high accuracy of the model. And it can forewarn when the gas density更多还原