【作者】 向艳；

【导师】 伍瑞凡；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 金融学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放几十年来，我国经济取得了巨大的发展，经济增长一直保持较高的增长率，但在近年来，特别是1999年成功实现经济“软着陆”后，经济增长速度开始减慢，有的年份开始出现通货紧缩和连续35个月物价下降，对经济增长产生的负面影响。而引起通货紧缩最直接的原因就是有效消费需求不足，因而，如何刺激有效消费需求的增加，推动经济的增长成为近年来研究和讨论的热点问题，许多专家也得出了具有价值的结论。本文也来对这一问题进行探讨，与以往不同的是，本文从消费方式和消费观念转变即银行卡消费这方面来探讨和寻求刺激消费需求增长，从而拉动经济增长的新方法。 本文是对银行卡消费与GDP的关系进行实证研究，来求得银行卡消费对宏观经济的影响。主要是在消费者行为理论和消费与支出理论的基础上，应用协整理论对银行卡消费与GDP的协整关系进行检验，通过建立动态滞后模型和误差修正模型来求得二者间的长期关系式和短期关系式。由该关系式得出银行卡消费与我国宏观经济是长期稳定同方向的关系，它对我国经济起作推动作用，但目前来说对经济的推动作用比较小。 通过上述的分析了解到银行卡有刺激消费，促进经济增长的作用，因而我们应该大力发展银行卡消费业务，但由于我国银行卡消费业务起步晚，发展慢，目前银行卡业务中还存在着银行经营理念落后，特约商户少等问题，本文对此提出相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Currently, china economic growth is always quick . But deflation appears at some ages especially after China economic successfully is reformed ,price continuance drop in 35 months , economic growth starts with dropping .Reason in deflation is that effective demand is lack especially consume demand . So discuss and considerate how consume demand increase is very important. With electron technology development , consume via bankcards and ATM become people’s life style ,bankcard will replace cash .Consume via bankcards is very important to economic growth . The paper begin with the relation of consumption via bankcards and GDP growth , proofs consume via bankcards shows positive influence on the growth of total consumption.This paper reviews the consumption behavior theory and the consumption output theory , and conducts empirical analysis the relation of consumption via bankcards and GDP growth in china . The results of error correction model using co-integration theory show that after the quick expansion of consumption via bankcards in China , it has established a long stable relationship with the country’s GDP growth , and the penetration ratio of banking card also shows positive influence on the growth of total consumption.Consume via bankcards shows positive influence on the growth of GDP growth , our country should develop it . But consume via bankcards is very small in total consumption. It exist in short of personal credit system drop of work conception and lock of credit cards consume condition problems .To this problems this paper puts forward some ideas that set up person credit system reform consume style and develop new accept terminal.更多还原