【作者】 程杰；

【导师】 栾敬东；

【作者基本信息】 安徽农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 在经济一体化和全球化的环境下,农业经营风险的种类与表现形式日益复杂,当前我国农业面临着自然风险、市场风险、制度风险、技术风险以及资产风险等多种冲击,农业的高风险成为我国农业发展的严重制约。尽管当前在农业风险的控制方面有了一定的进展,但完善而系统的农业风险管理程序仍未成熟。农业风险管理方法单一,难以形成有效的风险管理方式的组合;农业风险管理发展重点与农业保险的困境之间的矛盾;农业风险信息收集、处理机制不健全,对农业产业链中各种不同的风险仍未进行深入挖掘和系统分类,从而限制了农业风险管理体系的发展;缺少独立、完善的农业风险管理机构,导致农业风险管理的低效率;农业风险管理手段的创新机制、相关法律法规相对缺乏。本文通过对农业风险和农业风险管理的客观状况和特征的实证分析,全面、系统的描述了我国农业高风险与风险管理低效率的困境,并在对这种困境根源分析基础上提出了农业产业链风险管理的必要性。对农业风险状况的研究分别以农业宏观整体、微观主体和一般风险类别为对象,从多个层面探讨我国农业高风险的特征。对农业风险管理状况的研究以当前我国主要使用的风险管理方式为对象,有针对性的分析它们的现实效率。不同类型农业风险之间的相互作用是导致我国农业高风险与风险管理低效率的前提,这种作用机制的复杂性正是我国农业风险管理面临的困难。本文分析得出:我国农业风险管理方式具有孤立性特征,甚至与农业风险的防范存在一定的排斥性,农业风险类型的关联性与风险管理方式之间的孤立性是导致我国农业风险管理困境的根本原因。对“困境”的分析引导我们对农业风险作用机制进行深入研究,引导出以农业产业链为切入点的风险管理模式的形成。本文试图寻求一种打开农业风险作用机制“黑箱”的方法。当前我国不同农业风险之间的作用类似于在“黑箱”中进行,理论界和决策部门对此的研究还比较缺乏,以至于采取的风险管理处于低效率状态。以农业产业链为依据进行风险分解,可以明确不同类型风险在各个产业链条中的作用和影响。分解前,某一特定风险对整个农业产业链会产生较大影响,但在“黑箱”状态下我们难以明确这种风险的作用过程,因而简单的采取所谓相对应的风险管理方式并未有效。通过以产业链为载体分解后,我们能认清这一特定风险在农业生产前、农业生产中以及农业生产后各个环节中的作用和影响,从而针对不同产业链条所产生影响的程度和方式,寻求不同的风险管理方式,通过有效的风险管理组合,达到降低农业风险的目标。以农业产业链为依据打开农业风险作用机制的“黑箱”对我国农业风险管理具有重要意义,它是解决农业风险管理“困境”的前提,是打开农业风险作用“黑箱”的有效方法,也是引导不同风险管理方式关联性增强的途径。本文以农业产业链为依据对农业风险进行了分解的基础上,为了有效解决农业高风险与农业风险管理低效率的困境,提高农业风险管理效率,降低农业风险,我们尝试性的建立一套农业产业链风险管理程序。农业产业链风险管理程序的构建具有重要意义,它必须遵循基本的风险—收益选择原则、稳定与效益的原则和风险管理效率最大化原则。农业产业链风险管理是在农业风险管理体系基础上形成的一个系统的、有针对性的管理过程,包括制定农业产业链风险管理计划、农业产业链风险的识别、农业产业链风险的衡量、农业产业链风险处理方法的选择、农业产业链风险管理的决策、实施以及风险管理的检查和评价。本文通过对“订单农业+期货市场”农业风险管理模式的案例解析,对农业产业链风险管理进行了有针对性的深入探讨。农业产业链风险管理旨在以农业产业链为载体进行风险分析的基础上,结合现代风险管理理论,建立一套科学、有效、针对性强的风险管理程序。它的有效实施要求从风险管理理念、风险管理信息系统、创新体制、组织结构和法律、法规等方面提供保障。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under circumstance on the economic internalization and the globalization, the category and manifestation of the agriculture risk are complicated increasingly. At present our country’s agriculture faces sires of risks, such as the natural risk, the market risk, the institutional risk, the technique risk and the property risk etc. The high risk of the agriculture becomes serious restraint our country’s agriculture development. Though current management on the agriculture risk makes progress in a certain way, perfect and systematical agriculture risk management system is still immaterial. The method of agriculture risk management is so monotonous that can’t construct effective combination of risk management methods; there is a kind of antinomy between development on agriculture risk management and predicament of the agriculture insurance; collection and processing of the agriculture risk information mechanism is not sound, which don’t carry on thoroughly scooping out and systematically classifying toward various different risks of the agricultural chain so that limit development of agriculture risk management system; lack of independent and sound agriculture risk management organizations so that cause low efficiency of agriculture risk management; lack of the creative mechanism and related laws of agriculture risk management method.This paper describes systematical and soundly the predicament which our country’s high agricultural risk and the low efficiency of risk management put forward necessity of agricultural chain risk management based on analyzing cause of the predicament by analyzing empirically objective situations and characteristics of agriculture risks and agriculture risk management. Subjects on research toward situation of agriculture risk are respective macroscopic agriculture, microscopic corpus and general risk categories which to study characteristic of the high agriculture risk from many different layers. Subjects on research of agriculture risk management are main methods used by our country current which to analyze its objective efficiency. Interaction of difference agriculture risk which was obstacle our country’s agriculture risk management faced is precondition of which high agriculture risk and low efficiency of risk management. These paper proposals by analyzing: the methods of our country’s agriculture risk management are isolated basically, even propel against management of agriculture risk to a certain extend. The predicament which the connection between different agriculture risks and the isolation between different methods of risk management is basic reasons that there is a kind of predication of our country’s agriculture risk management. To analyze“Predicament”will lead us to study further the functional mechanism of agriculture risk so that propel to establish new model of risk management which studies based on agricultural chain.This paper tries to research a kind of method that open“black box”of the agriculture risk functional mechanism. The function between different agriculture risks of our country at present is carried on similarly in“black box”, related studies by the field of academy and the sections about decision is still insufficient, so that methods of risk management adapted by them turn out inefficient. The risk decomposition in the light of the agricultural chain can make clear functions and influences of different style risks in every points of chain. Before decomposition, a kind of risk may come about serious influence to the whole agricultural chain, but we can’t nearly make clear functional process of the risk under the situation of“black box”. Thus methods of risk management correspondence so called adapted simplify are invalid. After carrying on decomposition in the light of industrial chain, we can passing to take the industry chain as to carry the body decomposition, we can make clear the functions and the influences of the risk in the every periods of before-produce, in-produce and after-produce so that research corresponding methods of risk management and come to aim of decreasing agriculture risk by combining methods of risk management effective. Opening“black box”of functional mechanism of agriculture risk in the light of the agricultural chain takes an important significance to our country’s agriculture risk management, which is the precondition of resolving predication of agriculture risk management, is efficient way of opening“black box”of mechanism of agriculture risk, is also effective path of propelling relation of different risk management methods to strengthen.This paper tries to establish a kind of procedure of agriculture risk management based on the decomposition of agriculture risks in light of agricultural chain for resolving effectively the predication of high agriculture risk and low efficiency of risk management, strengthening efficiency of agriculture risk management and decreasing agriculture risk. The establishment of agricultural chain risk management procedure has an important significance, which must obey basic principles such as risk-revenue selection principle, stability-performance principle and efficiency maximization of risk management. Agricultural chain risk management is a kind of systematical and explicit management procedure based on agriculture risk management system, which includes drawing up agricultural chain risk management planning, recognizing risks of agricultural chain, measuring risks of agricultural chain, selecting methods of agricultural chain risk management, deciding and implementing agricultural chain risk management, and supervising and evaluating agricultural chain risk management.This paper studies further agricultural chain risk management by analyzing a kind of case example—“Contract Agriculture + Future Market”about model of agriculture risk management. A basic aim of agricultural chain risk management is to establish a kind of scientific, efficient and explicit procedure of risk management based on analyzing agriculture risk in the light of agricultural chain with theories about modern risk management. Its effective implement requires to a series of guarantees in terms of notions of risk management, risk management information system, innovation institution, organization structure, laws and so on.更多还原