2004年中国轿车产业集中度实证研究

【作者】 张占钊；

【导师】 张凤林；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 产业经济学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 对于我国轿车市场在过去4年里的表现，有人用“三年井喷、一夜雪崩”来概括，可谓形象生动、准确逼真。从2001—2003年我国汽车行业特别是轿车行业的发展速度为世界所瞩目，无论是合资企业还是民营企业，无论是龙头企业还是新生力量都抛出增资扩产的豪言壮语，一场风风火火的造车运动似乎还要持续升温。然而让所有人始料未及的是2004年的国内车市风云突变、骤然降温，尽管各大厂商试图通过频繁的降价来拉动需求，可是整个车市似乎陷入了泥潭，低迷的行情不见一点起色。此时人们才冷静下来重新审视国内的轿车市场：我国轿车行业在2004年的表现真的让人如此悲观吗?目前的轿车行业究竟处于怎样的发展阶段?还有没有进一步快速发展的动力? 本文运用实证研究的方法，对国内外汽车(包括轿车)行业的大量数据进行汇总、筛选、分类，总结出有关产业规模、年产销量、增长率、市场占有率、集中度等方面的数据。进而通过对这些数据的分析、对比揭示出我国轿车产业的结构特点，特别是集中度特点。在测算集中度的过程中主要以年产量、年销量为测定基数，以CR_n、H指数、E指数为指标。通过对三种指标对应的测定结果进行比较，实际验证一下H指数和E指数的实用性。同时与世界主要轿车生产国的行业集中率进行对比，由此推断出我国轿车行业目前所处的发展阶段以及未来的发展方向。 研究发现，尽管2004年的中国汽车行业没有延续此前迅猛的发展势头，但是产销量还是突破了500万辆，同比增长约15％。在此背景下全年累计生产轿车221.96万辆，比上年同期增长10.8％；销售轿车(指国产新车)223.31万辆，比上年同期增长13.3％；轿车产销量居于世界第8位。虽然与前两年惊人的增长速度不能相提并论，但是相对于低迷的世界汽车工业来说，近13％的增长率还是使中国车市成为世界汽车工业中不可缺少的增长点。 当然无论从发展历史、技术水平，还是从市场结构、产业规模来看，我国轿车行业都处于起步阶段。通过与世界主要轿车生产国集中度的对比，本文研究发现我国轿车市场体现出厂商数目过多和行业集中率偏低的特征，而且近几年来行业集中率呈现逐步降低的趋势。而整个世界汽车行业正在逐渐发展成寡头垄断型市场结构，仅由几大汽车生产集团和企业来控制。根据世界汽车行业更多还原

【Abstract】 Someone describes the performance of Chinese sedan market in the past four years as "blowout for three years, snowslide at one night". How visual, lifelike and exact it is! The development speed of Chinese auto market, especially sedan market, absorbed the attention from all over the world during 2001 and 2003. No matter what joint ventures, civilian companies, one-up leaders or new entrants, all try their best to invest more and enlarge scale. It seems that Chinese auto market will continue to keep the higher speed. However nobody can forecast that the high-running wheel of Chinese auto market will break down in 2004. Although most of companies try to push customer demand by cutting price, there is no obvious indication of resuscitation. The drastic fluctuation forces everyone to revalue Chinese auto market. Was Chinese sedan market performance really so pessimistic? Which stage does Chinese sedan industry belong to on earth? Is there any driving power for further development?Demonstration is the main method to construct this paper. The paper calculates industry scale, yearly output, yearly sale, increasing rate, concentration ratio about Chinese sedan industry, through collecting, filtrating, sorting and summarizing thedata about domestic and overseas auto industry. Then the paper indicates the character of Chinese sedan industrial structure, especially, concentration ratio. CR_n,H index and E index are main indexes based on the output and sale. The paper will validate whether H index and E index are applied or not. It concludes present stage and future development trend of our sedan industry through comparing concentration ratio with other main manufacturers in the world.The research discovers that Chinese auto industry did not still keep the rapid development speed (only 15%), but both output and sale broke through 5 million vehicles. In this case both sedan output and sedan sale reach nearly 2.2 million units, and rank eighth all over the world. Although the development speed is obviously more sluggish than before, Chinese auto market with 13% increasing rate still became one of the main drivers of world auto industry in 2004.Chinese sedan industry locates initiatory stage from every aspect, such as development history, technique level, market structure and industrial scale. Overmuch manufacturers and lower concentration ratio are main characters, and更多还原