世界石油贸易与中国石油发展战略

【作者】 王瑾；

【导师】 徐景霖；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 查看近10年的世界能源统计资料，可以发现一个重大的趋势性变化，即：1900-2000年，世界石油产量增加了13.4％，而国际石油贸易量从1900年15.5亿吨增长到21.1亿吨，增长了36.2％；国际贸易量占当年世界石油产量的比例也上升了10个百分点，由1900年的48.7％增长到2000年的58.8％。石油被广泛运用于交通运输、石化等各行各业，被称为经济乃至整个社会的“黑色黄金”、“经济血液"。随着石油稀缺性的日益增强，它已成为一种重要的、全球性的战略性资源。石油的流动改变着世界政治经济的格局，只要没有一种新的燃料能够取代石油，国际间石油的争夺就不会停止。作为世界上最大的贸易市场和最大的全球性产业，石油工业对现代社会经济发展的影响将有增无减。 2005年，能源短缺和安全问题困扰全球。战争、恐怖主义、政治因素以及投机资金，搅得世界石油市场风云变幻、令人捉摸不定。西方八国首脑会议、APEC首脑会议及上海合作组织首脑会议都把能源列入重要议题，能源外交也异常活跃。建国来，中国的能源工业从无到有，不断的成长壮大，2004年我国能源自给率达到94％。但随着我国经济高速发展，城镇化速度加快和汽车数量快速上升，国内的生产已经难以满足日益增长的需求量。中国的能源短缺引起了全球的广泛关注，发达国家纷纷希望扩大与中国在能源领域的合作。中国为后发大国，正处于工业化进程的中期，对石油的需求必将十分旺盛。一方面国内供需缺口越来越大，另一方面国际石油市场风云变幻，中国石油进口有一半是来自中东地区，这一地区常年动荡不安，海上运输安全以及美国的干扰因素，使中国的石油安全正经历着严峻的考验。面对这些问题和挑战，我们将何去何从，本文对此进行了详细的论述提出了问题的解决方案。 本文首先从分析世界石油贸易入手，阐述了世界石油产储量，重点分析供给、需求的格局以及价格的变化趋势：在第二部分中分析了中国的石油贸易状况，国内历年的生产量、消费量、进出口量以及我国石油对外贸易进程更多还原

【Abstract】 Referring to the world energy statistics of recent 10 years, we can find a huge change: world petroleum production has increased by 13.4% from 1900 to 2000. But petroleum international trade grew from 1.55 billion tons to 2.11 billion tons, 36.2% higher. The percentage of the petroleum trade in the world petroleum production increased by 10%, from 48.7% in 1900 to 58.8% in 2000. Petroleum is comprehensively used in all industries, such as transportation, petrochemical ect.. It was called "black golden", "blood of economy" for the economy and the whole society. Petroleum is becoming a significant and global strategic resource. Flow of petroleum changes the world political economy system. If there is not substitute energy, the petroleum competition will not cease. As one of the largest trade market and global industry, the influence of the petroleum industry will be even greater.In 2005, energy shortage problem disturbs the whole world. War, terrorism, political factors and speculation made petroleum market more fluctuating. It’s an important issue of many international meetings, such as West 8 countries Summit, APEC Summit and Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit. Our energy industry has grown up and became stronger and stronger since the foundation of our state. In 2004, the ratio of petroleum supply by ourselves is 94%. But the domestic production can’t meet the growing demand because of the fast growth of economy, the urbanization and the increased number of cars. China energy shortage has drawn so much attention that developed countries express their hope to expand their energy cooperation with China. As a developing country, China is in the midst of industrialization process that the need for petroleum is increasing, Petroleum must grow fast. The petroleum market fluctuation, marine transportation security and America factors challenges China petroleum security. This essay tries to give solutions to how to handle these challenges and how to solve these problems. This thesis will give the solutions.更多还原