【作者】 哈斯巴根；

【导师】 宝音；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 呼和浩特市作为内蒙古自治区政治、经济、文化中心,随着改革开放和经济发展,城市人口不断增加,已由中等城市发展成为大城市,城市发展已进入快车道。土地资源人口承载力问题是呼和浩特市经济与社会发展的重要问题之一,对农业政策与土地规划、人口政策与计划生育,乃至国民经济发展计划与长远规划都具有重大的现实意义和深远的历史意义。本研究课题对呼和浩特市土地资源人口承载力进行了系统的分析研究,得出以下主要结论:1、根据1996-2003年呼和浩特市土地利用现状变更表数据,分析了呼和浩特市土地资源的开发利用现状及特征。总体上看,呼和浩特市土地资源质量较好,但地区间和地类间差异十分明显。2、依据系统动力学原理,分析呼和浩特市土地资源人口承载力及其构成因子之间因果反馈关系,建立SD模型,在参数设定的基础上,提出把各种参数不同情况进行组合,对未来十多年的呼和浩特市土地资源人口承载力仿真模拟。考虑到情景分析的代表性和实际意义,主要将5种方案进行仿真模拟,为政府和有关部门提供决策依据。3、以内蒙古自治区和全国作为参照区域对比研究呼和浩特市相对资源承载力,据此定位呼和浩特市的现状和未来发展趋势,最终得出,在未来十多年呼和浩特市经济资源承载力对综合承载力的贡献率明显高于土地资源承载力的贡献率;经济增长速度高于内蒙古自治区的发展速度,接近全国平均经济发展水平。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the political, economic, cultural center of the autonomous region, Hohhot has developed from a medium city to a bigger one. Along with the reform opening and economic development, the population of the city has increased continuously. The city keeps developing rapidly. The land resources and the population bearing capacity is always the key problem of the economic and social development in Hohhot. It has the great practical significance and profound historic significance to the policy of agriculture and land program, the population policy and the family planning, even the long-term plan of the national economic development.This article analyses the land resources and population bearing capacity of the Hohhot and reaches the following conclusions:1、According to the data from the change list of the land utilization’s status quo in Hohhot from 1996 to 2003, the author analyses the status quo and the character of the land resources development and utilization in Hohhot. Overall, the quality of land resources is in Hohhot is a bit good, but there is also some obvious differences between the regions.2、According to the principle of system dynamics, the article studies the land bearing capacity in Hohhot and the causality between its elements. Thus, the author makes a SD model, and imitates the situation of Hohhot population bearing capacity in future more than 10 years by combining various parameters under the different conditions. Considering the representative and actual significance of circumstances analysis, the article imitates the main 5 programs then provides the decision foundation for the government and the department concerned.更多还原