【作者】 许海平；

【导师】 傅国华； 韦勇；

【作者基本信息】 华南热带农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 运。为了打破封锁禁运,我国与苏联正式签订了中苏合作发展天然橡胶的协议,计划在3年内种植橡胶树53.33万公顷1,经过几十年的发展,中国天然橡胶产业已初具规模,2004年中国天然橡胶投产面积为42.00万公顷,占世界的5.19%,居世界第六位;年产量达48.60万吨,占世界的5.75%,居世界第五位。在我国加入WTO,我国与东盟自由贸易区全面启动的背景下,在建立和谐社会、节约型社会,加强自主创新以及建设社会主义新农村的新形势下,中国天然橡胶产业面临新的机遇和挑战,如何抓住机遇?如何巩固和发展中国天然橡胶产业?如何提高天然橡胶生产的自给率?这些都是值得研究的问题,加强中国橡胶产业的经济学分析,初步建立橡胶产业经济学筐架,从而为探索中国天然橡胶产业的发展战略提供决策依据。本文主要以实证研究方法为主,应用计量经济学和统计学方法,采用普通最小二乘法(OLS),借助SAS9.0、EVIEWS3.0和EXCEL等软件对数据进行模拟估计,从经济含义检验、统计检验、计量经济检验和预测检验等方面优选模型,建立海南省天然橡胶生产函数,天然橡胶需求函数模型以及中国和世界天然橡胶供给与需求模型。本文包括:第一章节是导论,主要介绍选题背景、研究意义和目前国内外相关领域的研究进展,介绍研究内容、研究思路、技术路线、研究方法和创新。第二章节是应用于研究的经济理论与分析方法介绍,着重介绍生产函数理论、多元线性回归模型、时间序列模型和需求函数理论。第三章节是以海南农垦为例,建立海南省天然橡胶生产函数。揭示了海南天然橡胶生产特性与各要素对产业发展的影响。第四章节是探讨天然橡胶“价格机制”。从经济学角度,对天然橡胶的价格弹性和天然橡胶与合成橡胶替代弹性研究。第五、六章节是运用时间序列模型和多元回归模型建立中国和世界天然橡胶供给与需求模型,在此基础上对2006-2010年中国和世界天然橡胶的供给与需求更多还原

【Abstract】 The US-leading imperialist had carried out economic blockade against the China government and had laid an embargo on natural rubber(NR) During 1950s. Since NR is a very important industrial and strategetic materials, China government and the Soviet Union signed a Sino-Soviet cooperation agreement in the development of NR making a plan for cultivating 533,300 hectares areas under NR in three years. The Chinese natural rubber industry(CNRI) has been founded, through several decades of development. The Chinese NR producing area and production amounted to 420,000 hectares and 486,000 tons respectively in 2004, accounting for 5.19% and 5.75% of the world, ranking the sixth and the fifth in the world.After China entering the WTO,China and Association of South East Asian Nations(ASEAN) free trade area have launched, however, building harmonious society, saving society, and strengthening independent innovation and solving the "three agricultural" issues, CNRI is facing new opportunities and challenges, how to grasp the opportunity? How to consolidate and develop CNRI? How to improve the self-sufficient ratio of NR production? The three questions have to begin to research. Establishing the economics framework of CNRI and strengthening economics analysis on CNRI, on which are based to explore the development strategies of CNRI.In dissertation, it are NR’s production function in Hainan, the model of the NR’s supply and demand in China and the world, and the model of NR’s demand function that have been established by a combination of empirical analysis, the methods of applied econometrics and statistics, using the OLS, by way of the software SAS9.0, EVIEWS3.0 and EXCEL. Those models are optimized from the test of economic implications, statistical test, econometric test and prediction test.This dissertation’s structure is as follows:The first chapter is introductory, which mainly introduces the background of selecting topic, the significance of research and the progress of correlative domain research in domestic and abroad, and explains from aspect of research content, research mentality, technical route, research technique and innovation.更多还原