【作者】 张玉梅；

【导师】 过建春；

【作者基本信息】 华南热带农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 中国是全球最大的天然橡胶消费国和进口国,也是第五大产胶国,集天然橡胶的生产、消费和进口于一体。随着加入WTO、与东盟和欧盟的合作不断加强,中国与国际市场的联系更加密切。在自由化贸易背景下,国际天然橡胶市场交易更加活跃,价格联系更为紧密,市场间相互作用加强,中国天然橡胶市场将面临更多国际国内不确定性因素的影响。本文建立天然橡胶市场空间均衡模型,深入研究世界天然橡胶市场的特点,综合考虑各个区域天然橡胶市场间的横向联系,分析各种国际国内因素对我国天然橡胶市场的影响和冲击,预测未来天然橡胶市场走势,为把握天然橡胶市场和制定中国天然橡胶产业发展战略提供参考。本文依据天然橡胶国际贸易流通现状和区域经济的相似性,将世界天然橡胶市场分为五个区域市场:中国、东盟、美国、欧盟和其它国家,分析各个区域天然橡胶的供求关系及其影响因素,运用计量经济学方法建立了五个区域天然橡胶市场的需求和供给方程,并估算各个区域天然橡胶的需求价格弹性、需求交叉价格弹性、需求收入弹性和供给价格弹性。结果表明,天然橡胶的需求收入弹性普遍较大,而天然橡胶的需求价格弹性和供给价格弹性为缺乏弹性。本文依据天然橡胶的流通特点,运用需求弹性和供给价格弹性估算结果,构建了由供给和需求、价格、流量等约束方程和目标方程共同组成的天然橡胶市场空间均衡模型(SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL of NATURAL RUBBER, NRSEM)。选取2003年为基准年,借助GAMS软件模拟NRSEM的基准方案,分析基准方案模拟结果,通过检验,认为NRSEM模型有效。最后,运用天然橡胶市场空间均衡模型(NRSEM)进行政策模拟分析,分别模拟估计各个区域国内生产总值GDP、合成橡胶价格、天然橡胶收获面积、关税等因素变动对世界尤其是对中国天然橡胶市场供给、需求、价格和进出口的影响。研究表明:中国经济增长对世界天然橡胶市场影响较大;东盟经济增长对世界天然橡胶市场也会产生一定的影响,但对中国天然橡胶市场影响不大;欧盟经济增长对世界天然橡胶市场产生的影响很小;美国和欧盟合成橡胶价格变化对世界天然橡胶市场影响非常小,仅导致美国和欧盟区域内天然橡胶价格变化;2006年和2010年中国和东盟天然橡胶收获面积预测值都在增加,并且中国增加的幅度比东盟大,收获面积调整后,都会对世界天然橡胶市场产生一定的影响;中国关税调整会对天然橡胶市场产生一些影响,但只有当取消进口关税时才会对天然橡胶市场产生比较明显的影响。另外,综合考虑各种影响因素,简单预更多还原

【Abstract】 China is the biggest consumption and import country of natural rubber around the world,and it is also the fifth largest production country. China takes the production, consumption and import of natural rubber as a whole. With China’s entering into WTO, the cooperation with the ASEAN and EU are strengthening, China is blending with international market further. Under the free trade background, the tradeoff is becoming more active in the international natural rubber market, the link of prices in different areas are more closely, and the interactions of markets are strengthening. China’s natural rubber market will be affected by more domestic and international uncertain influence factors.This study sets up A Spatial Equilibrium Model of Natural Rubber (NRSEM), which re-searches deeply the characteristics of the world natural rubber market, considers comprehen-sively the horizontal contacts between countries, regions, analyzes the impacts and attacks of various international and domestic factors on China natural rubber market, predicts the trend of future natural rubber market, provides the reference to grasp the future natural rubber mar-ket and lay the strategies to develop China’s natural rubber industry.This study divides the natural rubber world market into five regional markets such as China, ASEAN, the United States, EU and the rest of the world, according to the similarity of natural rubber’s international trade and regional economies. It analyzes the relationships of supply and demand of natural rubber and their influencing factors. It uses econometrics to es-tablish the natural rubber demand and supply functions of five different regions, and estimates price elasticity of demand, income elasticity of demand, cross price elasticity of demand and price elasticity of supply of natural rubber of five different regions. The results show that in-come elasticity of demand is bigger, but price elasticity of demand and price elasticity of sup-ply are lack of elasticity.In line with the characteristics of natural rubber circulating, using the estimates of price elasticity of demand and supply, this study builds up the spatial equilibrium model of natural rubber which consisting of the supply and demand functions, price relation functions, follow-ing functions as the constraints, and object functions. Taking year 2003 as basis year, this dis-sertation simulates the basis scenario by GAMS, analyzes the result of the simulation and holds that the NRSEM is valid.更多还原