【作者】 张洪波；

【导师】 黄强； 畅建霞；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 近几年跨流域调水一直是国内学术界研究的热点,尤其是在受水区的水资源配置方面,许多学者在解决如何用好外调水的问题上做了大量的研究工作;但对于调水区的调后水资源研究则往往成为被遗漏的对象,相关的研究较少,且多集中在调水对调水区的生态影响方面,而对于调水区在水量调出后的水资源二次配置工作则尚无系统的研究。本论文以洮河流域为例,从洮河的径流演变趋势入手,通过对洮河下游水资源承载力的分析评价,研究引洮工程对洮河下游水资源利用的影响,进而对洮河下游梯级水库群进行优化调度,制定洮河流域在调水后的二次最优调配方案。论文主要研究内容和取得的成果有以下几个方面:(1)采用洮河长系列水文资料,对降雨径流特征、径流变化规律进行分析,得到洮河径流在年内和年际变化的规律;应用小波理论对洮河多年径流变化趋势进行分析,得到洮河径流呈减少趋势的结论,并采用灰色拓扑模型对未来20年的径流变化作出预测。(2)在分析流域承载力研究方法的基础上,应用可拓学的理论和方法,建立基于可拓学承载力评价模型;并针对可拓评价方法存在的不足,提出了基于非对称贴近度原则和粗集理论相结合的改进可拓评价方法,与传统可拓评价方法相比,克服了以往决策者依赖专家经验知识的不足,有效解决最大隶属度原则的失效问题。应用到洮河流域水资源承载力评价获得了满意的结果。(3)在径流分析和承载力评价的基础上,建立洮河九甸峡梯级优化调度模型,并将粒子群智能演化算法应用到优化调度模型的求解过程中。针对粒子群优化算法自身存在的不收敛和局部最优问题,提出了适时变异和惯性因子等改进方法,应用到九甸峡梯级的发电调度中取得了很好的效果。(4)根据引洮工程的调水规划,设置2010年用水水平+调水2.19亿、2020年用水水平+调水2.19亿、2020年用水水平+调水5.5亿三种情景方案,进行长系列调节计算,并对调配的结果进行分析比较,提出流域管理的建议,为洮河流域的可持续开发和维持洮河健康生命,提供参考和科技支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 The interbasin water transfer is always regarded as the hot spot of academic circles resently, especially which is obvious in water resources allocation of intake area. Many scholars apply theirselves to how to utilize well water transfer, but less of who pay attention to water resources programming of water-transfer area when water is transferred out. So the research is little on water resources utilization of water-transfer area, and it concentrated on ecological effect of water transfer. Nows there is no system research on the second allocation of water resources in the water-transfer area.The paper is developed on Tao River. The analysis of runoff evolve trend of Tao River is the first step and then on the basis of the evaluation to water resources carrying capability of Tao River, it begin to study the effect to water resources utilization of Tao River lower-basin from the water transfer project from Tao River. Finished two foregoing parts, it should be done optimized scheduling of Tao River cascade reservoirs. At length the optimal second regulation and allocation scheme is planned about Tao River basin. The study content and production are made up of the following parts.(1)Long hydro-sequence data is applied to analyse its characteristics of rainfall and change regular of runoff, on base of which intermonthly and interannual change regular is given. Multiannual mean runoff variation trend of Tao River is gained by Wavelet method and the runoff predict by gray topology model. The result shows runoff of Tao River would be a reducible trend.(2)On the basis of analyzing research methods of basin carrying capability, matter element theory is quoted in order to built extension carrying capability evaluation model. In allusion to its shortage, the pro-extension evaluation method with asymmetrical proximity and Rough is put forward, which overcome the lack of only dependent on experts’experience and effectively solve failure of maximum proximity.The result is saticfied and the method feasible.(3)Optimal operation model of Jiudianxia cascade reservoirs is built on the basis of two foreparts. Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (PSO) is applied to its calculational process.For imconvergent and local optimization is in PSO, timely variation and inertia factor are put forward so that its effect is good in power operation of Jiu cascade.(4)According to the programming of water transfer, 2010+2.19×108m3, 2020+2.19×108m3 and 2020+5.5×108m3 are regarded as three scenes. It compare with the results so as to bring forward advice on basin manage when calculation is finished.更多还原