【作者】 王晶；

【导师】 贾正源；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（河北） ， 技术经济及管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 电力需求侧管理是解决我国电力紧缺问题的有效手段。本文在对国内外电力需求侧管理实施经验总结的基础上,结合保定地区电源结构、用电现状分析、行业用电分析、用电特点及对保定市负荷高峰月运用综合GM(1,1)、ARIMA的变权组合预测模型进行负荷预测的结果,证明了保定市实施电力需求侧管理的必要性、紧迫性和可行性,同时确定了实施需求侧管理的重点。进而以一定统计数据为依据,对保定市电力需求侧管理措施进行了针对性研究和相应成本效益分析,并提出了建立电力需求侧管理激励机制的建议。该项方案研究对保定电力需求侧管理有重要的现实借鉴意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Power demand side management can solve our country electric power scarce question.This article in the foundation which summarizes to the domestic and foreign power demandside management implementation experience, unifies the Baoding area power source structure,the present situation analysis, the profession electricity analysis and the electricitycharacteristic. and to the Baoding peak load month using the synthesis GM(1 , 1), ARIMAchanges the power combination forecast model to carry on the load forecast the result.Through the analysis, the result can prove the necessity, the urgency and the feasibility ofBaoding power demand side management, and Simultaneously determine key point ofdemand side management. Then based on the certain statistical data , this paper conducts thepointed research and the corresponding cost benefit analysis to the Baoding power demandside management measure, and put forward the proposal of the establishment of stimulationmechanism. This scheme has important reality model significance to the Baoding powerdemand side management.更多还原