【作者】 霍焱；

【导师】 梁戈夫；

【作者基本信息】 广西大学 ， 企业管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 高新技术企业的高风险性使其在生产经营活动中即将面临诸多不确定性因素，这些不确定因素将会给高新技术企业的生产经营构造障碍和困难，从而影响其存续和发展，使其发生经营失败的可能性增加。本文针对高新企业的高风险特性，按照随机性原则以深沪两市上市高新技术企业为统计样本，利用统计学上的主成份分析法和多元判别分析法，借助财务信息和资料，根据亏损样本和配对样本指标间的差异性区分亏损企业和非亏损企业，从财务角度构造能够预测企业经营失败风险值的企业财务风险诊断预警模型，为了提高模型的预测精度和延长预测期限，本文引进了预算管理的思想，将预算管理和财务风险诊断相结合，并且考虑财务指标的动态变化，在亏损前两年和前三年的预测上，并非简单的沿用-1年度模型，而是根据-2年度和-3年度的财务数据，重新构造模型，实现了递延年度财务风险诊断，尤其是-1年度风险诊断预警模型准确率高达96.6％，由于-2年度与-3年度风险诊断也是按照统计样本指标数据构造风险诊断模型，因此，预测精度也较高。更多还原

【Abstract】 The high risk of new technology enterprise results in many uncertain elements in manufacturing and operating activities, and these uncertainties may be lead to some difficulties and barriers of the new technology company in manufacturing and operating business, thereby effect the development of the company and enhance the possibility of business failure. Aiming at the high risk of new technology company, this essay build up the forecast alert modal of risk diagnosis which can predict the risk value of failure business, by random choosing the new technology listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen share market as the statistic sample, using the main ingredient and multiplex verdict analyzing methods in statistics, with financial information and documents. According to loses money the sample and pairs the sample target the different discrimination loss enterprise and the non- loss enterprise, in order to enhance the model the forecast precision and lengthens the forecast deadline, this article has introduced the budget management thought, will budget the management and the financial risk diagnosis unifies, and consideration financial norm dynamic change,更多还原