【作者】 易洪；

【导师】 关宏志；

【作者基本信息】 北京工业大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济的快速发展,我国城市化进程以前所未有的速度加快,随之而来的城市交通问题成为当前困扰我国大中城市的主要问题之一。国内外的研究表明:发展城市轨道交通是解决城市交通拥挤,满足城市交通需求的最有效的手段,也是实现城市交通可持续发展的重要战略。价格是影响交通方式选择的重要因素,在城市轨道交通建设迅猛发展的今天,研究轨道交通需求随票价变化的敏感性,从理论与实践上探讨定价的方法,具有现实意义。本文在借鉴国内外研究的基础上,分析了现行轨道票价票制的特点以及轨道客流需求与轨道票价之间的弹性关系,提出需要建立一套适合轨道交通特点的票价结构体系。并通过对轨道票价进行分析,提出了基于轨道交通需求的轨道交通票价。本文简单总结了国内外城市轨道交通票价制定情况,并初步讨论了现行的定价原则、理论及定价模型。根据调查数据的特点及轨道交通的波动性,分别建立了平日、假日及不同出行目的的几个模型。在研究中,作者以轨道票价为主线,讨论了影响地铁票价的因素,并重点讨论了在不同票价条件下人们选择轨道交通出行比例的变化。作者还简要介绍了轨道交通票价调查的方法和内容,强调行为调查的适用性。结合北京市居民出行选择调查与公交票价可接受度调查,对数据进行初步统计分析和相关性分析,进而用非集计方法建立了轨道交通票价与人们选择轨道出行概率的预测模型,提出了不同轨道交通需求下的轨道交通票价。最后作者运用弹性分析的方法,分析了轨道交通需求量受轨道票价变化影响的变化程度,为今后制定轨道票价工作提供导向。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the quick development of our country’s economy, the urbanization process expedite at an unseen tremendous speed, the following urban transportation problem has become a“hard nut”that puzzles big cities in our country. Domestic and abroad study indicated that urban subway is the most efficient way to solve traffic congestion and to satisfy the urban traffic demand. It is also the important stratagem to realize the sustainable development of urban transportation.Price is an important element that affects traffic mode choice. With the rapid development of urban subway traffic construction, it has especial meaning to study actively sensitivity analysis on subway transit demand with the change of subway ticket price and to discuss the way to determine price from theoretical analysis to practical test. Based on the existed research domestic and abroad, this study analyses the characteristics of the current ticket price and the flexible analysis between subway passenger demand and the subway ticket price, and then puts forward that a new ticket structure system that suits subway traffic characteristics well should be founded. This paper offers a subway ticket price based on the subway demand.This paper summarizes domestic and abroad situation of constituting subway ticket price, and a primary discussion about the current pricing principle, theory and model. According to the characteristics of collected data and fluctuation of subway transportation, several models corresponding to weekday, holiday and different travel proposes had been established respectively.In this research, the author takes subway price as the masterstroke; in addition, those factors that influence subway price had also been concerned, and special pivot discussion is given to the proportion change that people choose subway traffic under the condition of different ticket prices, emphasizing applicability of behavior investigation. Combining the investigation on trip choices and the acceptability of bus ticket prices of Beijing residents, the author gave a primary data statistical and更多还原