【作者】 邢志平；

【导师】 郑兰祥；

【作者基本信息】 安徽大学 ， 政治经济学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 经济学的研究目的在于从理论上分析解决现实生活中出现的问题。改革开放以来，我国农村居民储蓄超常增长，与此同时，其消费率不断下降。过低的储蓄率固然不行，过高的储蓄率也决非好事。就我国而言，过高的储蓄率必定加重我国消费需求不足的现象，制约我国经济的持续、稳定增长。因此，探讨这种高储蓄率现象的原因并提出对策建议对于促进我国经济的持续、稳定增长具有深远的意义。 西方储蓄理论所研究的居民储蓄行为与我国的实际存在一定的差异，无法圆满解释我国农村居民的储蓄行为，因而单纯地根据西方储蓄理论，难以圆满解释我国出现高储蓄现象的原因。因此，将西方储蓄理论中国化、扩展西方储蓄理论并用于解释我国农村居民的储蓄行为，必将有利于解释我国农村居民的高储蓄现象，也必将有利于解决我国农村消费需求不足的问题。 基于此，笔者以《转轨时期中国农村居民预防性储蓄行为研究》为硕士研究生毕业论文，旨在扩展西方预防性储蓄理论以解释我国农村居民预防性储蓄行为，分析这种高储蓄现象的原因，并提出相应的对策建议。 具体来说，本论文的主体部分分为以下四章： 第一章对西方储蓄理论进行了简要概述，它是本文的立论基础。第一节介绍了传统储蓄理论。传统储蓄理论主要包括凯恩斯的绝对收入假说，杜森贝里的相对收入假说，莫迪利安尼的生命周期假说和弗里德曼的持久收入假说。这些假说都假定消费者能准确预期未来的收入，即不存在不确定性。第二节对预防性储蓄及其理论的主要模型进行介绍。预防性储蓄是指风险厌恶的消费者为防止未来不确定性导致消费水平急剧下降而进行的储蓄。随后介绍了预防性储蓄理论的几个主要模型：利兰德的预防性储蓄模型、扎德斯的预防性储蓄模型、缓冲存储模型、迪南的预防性储蓄模型以及最佳财富收入比模型。 第二章对转轨时期我国农村居民预防性储蓄行为进行理论分析。第一节对我国农村居民储蓄及其储蓄行为进行了界定。第二节从不确定性理论出发，分析了我国的市场化改革及其产生的居民不确定性。第三节首先给出了新古典经济理论关于市场经济体制下居民消费行为的特征假定，然后在制度变迁对消费者行为影响分析的基础上，对转轨时期我国农村居民消费行为的变化及其产生的农村居民消费支出的更多还原

【Abstract】 The goal for the study of economy is to analyze and solve the problems emerging in daily life. There is an abnormal increase of rural residents’ savings in China since Reform and Openness Period, but a drop of rural residents’ consumption rate accordingly. The savings rate can’t be too higher or lower. As in China, it will aggravate the insufficiency of consumption demand when the savings rate is too higher, and it will restrict the continual and steady increase of Chinese economy. So, it is of great significance to study this phenomenon and give some proposes accordingly in order to promote economy of our country increasing continuously and steadily.However, the residents’ savings behavior which was studied by western savings theories is different from ours’, and the western savings theories can not explain some rural residents’ savings behavior in china. So according to western savings theories simply, it is difficult for us to satisfactorily explain the reason that our country presents the phenomenon of rural residents’ high savings. Therefore, introducing western savings theory into China and expanding western savings theory in order to explain the rural residents’ savings behavior in our country will contribute to explain the high savings phenomenon in China, and it will also be helpful to solve the insufficiency of rural residents’ consumption demand in our country.So, the author presents "Study on precautionary savings behavior of Chinese rural residents’ during transitional period" as Master degree candidate’s graduation thesis. It aims for expanding western precautionary savings theory to explain Chinese rural residents’ savings behavior, analyzing the reasons of high savings and putting forward the corresponding countermeasures.Thesis’ main body is divided into four chapters:Chapter one mainly summarizes some western savings theories and gives a review. This chapter is the basis of the paper. Section I introduces traditional savings theories. Early savings theories include Keynes J. M’s absolute income hypothesis, Duesenberry J. S’s relative income hypothesis, Modigliani F’s life circle hypothesis and Friedman M’s更多还原