【作者】 胡海燕；

【导师】 周亚娜；

【作者基本信息】 安徽大学 ， 企业管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 随着全球经济一体化的逐步形成，市场竞争日趋激烈，企业的各种危机如同病毒一般，随时都可能侵蚀和威胁企业的生存和发展，企业出现破产及陷入财务危机的频率越来越高。加强对企业财务危机的认识，建立有效的预警和防范系统，已成为财务管理刻不容缓的课题。 本文主要内容安排如下：第一部分(即论文第二章)分析了财务危机的基本原理，重点阐述了财务危机的涵义和特征、在企业生命周期不同阶段财务危机的表现和根源。第二部分(即论文第三章)从我国2005年深沪两市114家被特别处理的上市公司入手，具体分析了上市公司财务危机的现状、具体表现形式及成因；第三部分(即论文第四章)针对处在财务危机潜伏期的公司，指出了应加强防范，重视早期信号，建立财务预警模型识别的问题。对已经处于危机爆发期的公司应启动危机处理系统，采取积极有效的措施消除危机的问题。第四部分(即论文第五章)属于模型的应用章节，以制造行业58家ST公司和58家非ST公司为例，选取现金流量为预警指标，建立多元线性回归模型，预测和判定财务危机状态不同程度。 本文的特色和创新之处在于，较为全面系统地阐述了财务危机的基本原理、形成过程和防范系统，将财务危机置入一个动态过程加以规范和实证研究。并结合深沪两市ST公司的具体数据，分析了我国上市公司财务危机的现状和表现，提出了从治理观、经营观和财务观三个方面寻找原因，建立预警系统，并加以有效处理的对策。论文对企业在财务管理中认识、识别和防范危机有一定的参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the gradual formation of economical globalization, competition in the market becomes more and more active. All sorts of crisis in the company are likely to erode and threaten the company’s existence and development anytime, so that company’s frequency of appearing bankruptcy and involving into financial crisis becomes higher and higher. So strengthen the knowledge to financial crisis, build up effective forewarning and preventative system of financial crisis have become a clamant research of financial management.The main contents of this paper as follows:The part Ⅰ ( namely the charter 2 ) analyses the basic theory of financial crisis and describes mainly its concept, characters, appearance of life period in different phases and sources, etc; the partⅡ ( namely the charter 3 ) analyses specifically the actuality, specific modes and reasons of financial crisis in Chinese listed companies through collecting connected data of ShenZheng and ShangHai province’s ST companies in 2005; the part Ⅲ ( namely the charter 4 ) explicates the company in the latent period of financial crisis should strengthen prevention, value primaeval signal, set up financial forewarning mode. Those companies that have involved into explosive period of financial crisis should initiate handling system of financial crisis and apply some active and effective measures to get rid of financial crisis. The part Ⅳ(namely the charter 5 ) is about the application of mode. The author takes 58 ST companies and 58 NON-ST companies for example and chooses current quantity of cash as forewarning guideline, builds up modes, and forecasts and awards its level.The features and creations of this paper as follows: the first is, the author explicates completely and systematicly the basic theories、 process to form and forewarning system, while financial crisis is formulated and researched as a running process. The second is, the author analyses the actuality and shapes of financial crisis in Chinese listed companies, and gives some resolutions through finding its reasons from three aspects including management, governance and finance, building up forewarning systems and handling it effectually. This paper is referential to company how to observe、 recognize and prevent crisis of financial management.更多还原