【作者】 姜海燕；

【导师】 郭金凤；

【作者基本信息】 内蒙古大学 ， 企业管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 随着全球经济一体化的逐步推进和我国市场经济的快速发展，特别是我国加入WTO后，市场竞争日趋激烈，企业理财面临的风险性和复杂性进一步加大。稍有不慎，就可能被卷入失败的漩涡。近年来，企业因财务风险陷入危机，甚至宣告破产的例子已屡见不鲜。如何提早预知危机，将危机消除在萌芽状态，实现企业持续健康的发展，这不仅是上市公司关注的重点，也成为各利益相关者的迫切要求。因此，构建一个有效适用的财务危机预警模型，无论对上市公司还是其利益相关者而言都具有重要的现实意义。本文的研究目的就是通过对上市公司各项财务指标的分析，找到能够显著区分财务危机公司和非财务危机公司的预警指标，以此来建立适应我国上市公司的财务危机预警模型，为有关各方提供决策依据和参考意见。 本文在借鉴前人研究成果的基础上，以我国A股市场上因“财务状况异常”而被特别处理(ST)的制造类上市公司为研究对象，选取了50家财务危机公司和235家正常公司作为训练样本。借助SPSS统计分析软件，首先研究了样本公司财务指标的数据特征，进而选择了非参数方法对财务危机公司和非财务危机公司29个财务指标的显著性差异进行了检验，然后运用单变量逻辑回归分析进一步筛选出对模型预测有显著贡献的财务指标，之后又利用因子分析方法再次精简变量并避免多重共线性的影响，最终筛选出5个指标作为建模的初始变量，采用多元逻辑回归分析分别构建了我国制造类上市公司财务危机发生前两年和前三年的预警模型，并利用285家训练样本和115家检验样本对所建模型的有效性进行了检验，结果显示：财务危机发生前两年预测模型的总体回判准确率为86％，预测准确率为84.35％；财务危机发生前三年预测模型的总体回判准确率为77.2％，预测准确率为76.52％。可见，两个模型均取得了较好的预测效果，具有一定的应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the gradual advancement of global economic integration and the fast development of our country market economy, especially after our country joins the WTO, marketing competition is gradually vigorous, financial management faces the larger risk and complexity. Enterprises fall into crisis because of financial risk, even bankrupt in recent years. How to warn early the crisis, eliminate the crisis in the embryonic stage, keep enterprise to develop continuously and healthy, this not only is the key point which the listed company pays attention to, also become urgent need for various benefit correlations. Therefore, to establish an effective suitable early-warning model on financial crisis has the very important realistic meanings for the listed company and its benefit correlations. The purpose of this paper is to find early-warning indicators that can remarkably distinct the financial crisis company and the non-financial crisis company through analyzing financial indicators of the listed company and establish early-warning model on financial crisis that is suitable for the listed company of our country, provide the making-policy basis and the advice for related respects.On the basis of forefathers’ research results, this article regards the listed manufacturing company that is treated specially (ST) because of "unusual financial condition" in A-share market as the research object, selects the training samples which are composed of 50 financial crisis companies and 235 normal companies. In virtue of SPSS, firstly, this article studies the data characteristics of finance indicators of sample companies and selects the non-parametric method to test significant differences of 29 financial indicators between the financial crisis company and the non-financial crisis company, then utilizes the single variable logistic regression analysis to select the financial indicators which更多还原