【作者】 郭江；

【导师】 陈美英；

【作者基本信息】 福州大学 ， 统计学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 统计是认识社会的武器。随着统计信息对我国社会主义市场经济管理作用的增强,社会各界对统计数据质量给予更多的关注,提出了更高的要求。事实上,统计数据的质量是统计工作的生命线。而目前我国对统计数据质量的研究还比较薄弱,为了更好地满足社会经济发展过程中社会各界对统计数据的需求,为了使我国统计进一步与国际接轨,增强统计数据的真实性和国际可比性,有必要对我国统计数据质量的定量检验进行系统深入的研究。本文首先从统计数据及质量的涵义出发,全面系统的介绍了统计数据质量的概念;其次,从研究统计数据的分布规律入手,对统计数据准确性检验问题进行了探讨,利用对数正态分布检验对反映研究对象规模大小的统计数据的质量及异常数据进行定量检查和识别,并利用相对拟合误差计量统计数据的非一致性误差;接着系统介绍了利用模糊综合评价方法对政府统计数据质量进行整体优度检验的思路,具体包括建立递阶层次的评价指标体系,指标权重的确定,计算各层次中因素的权重,判断矩阵的一致性检验,并根据上述标准建立了最终的政府统计数据质量模糊综合评价模型;然后通过从2003年中国统计年鉴资料中选取部分主要的社会经济总量指标进行实证分析:(1)利用描述统计和K-S检验法来验证这些社会经济总量指标服从对数正态分布的规律;(2)按照本文提出的二级检验法来对这些社会经济总量指标进行准确性和整体优度检验,从而达到综合评价政府统计数据质量的目的;最后对这种二级检验法的优点和不足进行小结,提出今后应该努力改进的方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 The statistics is a weapon that knows the society. Along with the information of statistics becoming more important for the management of socialism market economy, social public gives more concerns to the statistical data quality, putting forward the higher request. In fact, the quality of the statistical data is a Life Line of statistics. But currently the research of the statistical data quality in our country is still weaker. For satisfying the social public in need of statistical data better in the process of developing of society economy, for bringing the statistics in our country further in line with the nations, It is necessary for our country to take a system-depth study for quantitative test of statistical data quality.First this text sets out from the statistical data and the connotation of the quality, introducing the concept of the statistical data quality of the overall system; Next, start with the research of the distribution regulation of statistical data, study the problem of accuracy test of statistical data. Using lognormal normal distribution test to carry on the quantitative test and the recognition to the statistical data quality and the unusual data which reflect research object scale size. And use relative fitting error to measure statistical data non- uniform error; Then introduce the method systematically of using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to carry on the overall superior test of the government statistical data quality. Includes the establishment of step level appraisal target system, target weight determination, calculates the factor weight in various levels, uniform test of judgment matrix, and built up the final fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the government statistical data quality according to the above-mentioned standard; Finally selects the partial main social economy total quantity target from Chinese statistics yearbook 2003 to carry on the real diagnosis analysis: (1) Confirm these social economy total quantity targets using the description statistics and the K-S inspection method to obey the lognormal normal distribution. (2) According to the two levels of inspection methods which this article proposed to carry on accuracy and the overall superior test for these social economy total quantity targets. Thus achieves the goal of evaluate government statistical data quality comprehensively. Finally subtotal the merit and insufficient of this two levels of inspection methods. And proposed the direction how to improve diligently in the future.更多还原