【作者】 胡昆；

【导师】 谢罗奇；

【作者基本信息】 湘潭大学 ， 区域经济学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 通货膨胀目标制是20世纪90年代初出现的一种新兴的货币政策框架，其基本含义是中央银行、政府机构或者两者联合宣布一个通货膨胀目标，确定在未来某段或几段时期内取得并保持较低的、稳定的通货膨胀率，并明确宣布实现通货膨胀目标是货币政策唯一的、压倒一切的目标。该货币政策框架赋予了中央银行进行工具选择和操作的高度相机抉择权力，为了规避货币政策“时间非一致性”和获得货币政策的可信度，透明度和责任约束成为通货膨胀目标制的附加特征和要求。严重的通货膨胀压力、对外汇率稳定政策的崩溃、货币供应量目标的失效以及频繁爆发的金融危机，使得许多国家和地区放弃了传统的货币政策框架，纷纷转向通货膨胀目标制。通过对6个通货膨胀目标国和3个非通货膨胀目标国进行实证分析发现，实行通货膨胀目标制的国家能够将通货膨胀率降到低水平，而且能够有效地控制利率和产出缺口的波动。 就我国情况来看，货币供应量目标有效性的日渐变差和宏观经济在通货膨胀与通货紧缩之间的交替循环，对我国传统的货币政策框架提出了新的挑战。目前我国宏观经济稳定、财政状况良好、金融稳定发展、中央银行独立性和货币政策透明度明显提高、单一钉住美元的汇率制度业已改变，已经基本具备实行通货膨胀目标制的前提条件。但鉴于通货膨胀预测能力、货币政策传导效率等方面的一些困难，只能首先实行宽松的通货膨胀目标制模式，并适宜将通货膨胀目标设定在1％-5％这一区间。同时，进一步提高中央银行独立性和货币政策的透明度，加快汇率制度和利率市场化改革以疏通货币政策传导渠道是实行通货膨胀目标制的关键配套措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Inflation Targeting(IT) is a new monetary policy framework in the early 1990s.It means that the central bank, government or both announce a targeting inflation rate, promise to keep low and stable inflation in one or some future periods, and announce clearly that realizing the targeting inflation rate is the only, overriding goal of monetary policy. The framework gives central bank high power cameras choice to select and operate monetary policy tools. To avoid Time Inconsistency and get the credibility of monetary policy, transparency and accountability are additional features and requirements of IT. Severe inflationary pressures, collapse of exchange rate stability, the failures of money supply targeting and frequent outbreak of the financial crisis, have made many countries and regions abandon their traditional monetary policy frameworks and switch to IT. Through empirical analysis between six IT countries and three non-IT countries, we can found that the IT countries can reduce their inflation rate and escape volatility of interest rates and output gap the effectively.As far as China is concerned, the effectiveness of money supply targeting becomes worse, our macroeconomic violate between inflation and deflation, and both of them bring new challenge of traditional monetary policy framework. At present, our macroeconomic and financial are stable, the independence and transparency of our central bank have noticeably increased, and the single targeting dollar exchange rate system has changed, so we get the basic conditions to introduce IT. But in view of the inflation forecasting capacity and efficiency of the monetary policy transmission difficulties, we can only adopt ITL first and set l%-5% as our targeting inflation rate. At the same time, further enhancing the transparency of monetary policy and central bank independence, speeding the exchange rate system and the interest rate mercerization reform to clear the monetary policy transmission channels inflation, are key supporting measures of adopting IT.更多还原