【作者】 王军；

【导师】 张越杰；

【作者基本信息】 吉林农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 吉林省是我国重要的粮食生产基地和输出基地，拥有发展粮食生产的良好条件，素有“大豆故乡”和“黄金玉米带”的美誉。粮食播种面积占耕地总面积85％以上，常年粮食产量为1600-2510万吨，约占全国的4-5％，粮食综合生产能力已经达到了2500万吨。多年来粮食的人均占有量、销售量以及玉米的出口量均名列全国前茅。自改革开放以来已经为国家提供商品粮3000多亿千克，为保障我国粮食安全和社会稳定发展做出了突出贡献，在我国粮食安全保障体系中占有不可动摇的地位。 鉴于吉林省在我国粮食安全中的特殊地位以及粮食生产在吉林省农业中的重要地位，紧密结合吉林省省情，分析吉林省粮食生产增长的速度及构成，研究吉林省粮食生产增长过程及其影响因素，从而全面准确地理解和把握吉林省粮食增长变化的原因及过程特征，进而提出保护和提高吉林省粮食综合生产能力和实现粮食生产持续稳定增长的对策，对于指导粮食生产实践具有重要意义。另外，通过单层面系统的研究吉林省三大粮食作物——玉米、水稻和大豆的生产增长及各要素贡献的情况，对于把握粮食生产的资源配置情况，指导吉林省内部农业结构调整和保持农业经济的可持续发展，也将具有很重要的参考价值。 本研究的核心内容主要以现代经济增长理论为基础，采用实证分析和规范分析、定量分析和定性分析、比较分析和因素分析等方法首次从单品种的微观层面对吉林省的粮食生产增长及其影响因素进行了深入系统的研究。首先在介绍吉林省农业生产发展的基本状况基础上，通过大量的实证材料论述了吉林省的粮食生产地位、粮食生产发展历程中粮食生产增长的特点；然后利用C—D生产函数和残差法对吉林省玉米、水稻和大豆单产增长中各因素的作用进行计量经济分析；并在此基础上，提出了稳定和提高粮食综合生产能力，实现粮食生产持续稳定增长的对策。 主要研究内容和结果如下： 第一部分：第1章，阐明本文选题的背景及意义、对文献进行综述、说明本文的研究内容、阐述本文研究的理论基础和研究方法。 第二部分：第2章，从现代经济增长理论出发，利用统计数据对吉林省粮食生产发展的各阶段特征、粮食生产增长中投入要素增加的作用以及影响粮食生产增长的影响因素进行统计性描述性分析和总结。结果表明吉林省粮食生产在我国粮食生产以及吉林省农业生产中都具有重要地位。自80年代以来，由于单产量不断提高和种植更多还原

【Abstract】 Jilin Province is not only the major base of grain production but also the major one of food transferred and sold of our country with the good reputation of "Homeland of Soybean" and "Golden Maize Zone". Its crop planting acreage accounts for 85% of its total land area, food yield per year is 1600-2510 ten thousand ton, which equals to about 4-5% of national total output. Its Comprehensive Capability of Grain Production has reached 2500 ten thousand tons. The quantum of grain possessed by per capita, grain sold as well as maize exported have ranked the first in China for many years. More than 300 billion kilograms of commodity grain have already been offered for our country since reform and opening-up. So we can say that Jilin Province has made outstanding contributions to national food safety and plays an unchanged part in guarantee system.In view of its special position in our national food safety, combining the condition of Jilin Province closely, it is significant to provide reference for government’s decision-making of researching on the variable of the grain-production growth and probing of the influence factors in Jilin Province, grasping the reasons of grain-production growth and its features, putting forward countermeasures to improve and protect its Comprehensive Capability of grain-production hereafter and realizing sustainable and steady growth of grain-production. Meanwhile, it is significant for grasping resource rational allocation of grain-production, guiding adjustment of the agricultural structure and keeping sustainable development of the apicultural economy through researching on the production growth and influence factors contributions of maize, rice and soybean respectively.Based on modern economic growth theory, this research mainly adopts the methods of empirical and normal analysis, quantitative and qualitative analysis, comparison and factor analysis to systematically and thoroughly study grain-production growth and the influence factors in Jilin Province by single grain-variety. First, it has introduced the basic condition of agricultural development of Jilin Province, discussed its position in grain-production and analyzed its variable of grain-production growth and its feature compared to total land area. Second, it has analyzed the factors that influence the growth of per hectare yield of maize, soybean and rice respectively with C-D production function and Surplus method. On the basis of these, it has put forward countermeasures to improve Comprehensive Capability of grain-production and realize its sustainable growth.The main contents and results of this paper are as following:The first part: Chapter 1, Expounding the important significances and background of the study; summarizing the related research on this aspect; making clear research contents and methods; introducing the theoretical foundation.The second part: Chapter 2, On the basis of modern econometric measures, analyzing the characteristics, contributions and influence factors of the grain-production growth with更多还原