【作者】 李晓娟；

【导师】 丁艺；

【作者基本信息】 福建农林大学 ， 森林工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国高等级公路建设里程的增长，交通事故造成的财产和人员的损失也越来越大。交织区作为高等级公路的重要组成部分，交织区内复杂的车辆运行情况及安全性研究分析工作始终是个难点，因此对交织区安全性进行研究有着重要的研究意义。 论文在前人研究的基础上，在交织区车辆运行过程中对交通冲突及其影响因素的关系进行分析，建立了基于人工神经网络的高等级公路交织区交通冲突数预测模型；并在此基础上，通过对高等公路交织区交通冲突数与安全性关系的研究，提出了交通冲突数与道路安全性评价模型。通过上述模型的建立，提出了对现有及在建高等级公路交织区的安全性评价及改造流程，使高等级公路交织区评价及改造工作条理化、系统化。最后，应用福建省高等级公路交织区调查及实测数据资料进行实例分析，由测试结果来看，有较好的应用价值，进一步验证了高等级公路交织区交通冲突数预测模型及交通冲突数与道路安全性评价模型的可行性。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of freeway in our nation,the loss of people property and lives caused by traffic accidents became more and more large. Weaving area is one important composition of high-type highway,which safety level embodied the safety of vehicle operation. The complicated vehicle running situation and security study work at weaving area is difficult all the time, so it is very important for research meanings to carry on research of the security of weaving area.Based on the theory analysis of summarizing the research document of interweaving area.From the vehicle operation courses, the relation between traffic conflict technology and its influence factor is investigated and a predictive model based on artificial neural network (ANN)is presented. And on this basis, the relation between traffic conflict counting and road safety condition is analyxed and thus a model is presented to appraise weaving area of the high-type highway safety condition with traffic conflict counting.Based on above model,safety appraisal and ameliorative flows are presented aim at weaving area of the superhighway and built projects so as to systematically improve safety condition at Interweaving area of the high-type highway. Finally,it carry on the data materials investigating and surveying from the weaving area of the high-type highway in Fujian Province as the instance analysis. Seen by the debugging of the model and test result, the traffic conflict predict model of weaving area of the high-type highway and the road security appraisal model have better using value and have been proved further feasible through the data of the instance test.更多还原