福建省人口构成动态仿真及分析

【作者】 陈斌；

【导师】 徐学荣；

【作者基本信息】 福建农林大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 当前我国人口系统存在的主要问题有：人口老龄化、人口性别比失衡、劳动适龄人口变动所面临的就业以及城乡人口比例的不合理等，这些都是人口结构方面的问题。福建省近年来在人口结构方面的问题同样突出，有必要对福建省未来的人口结构进行预测，对未来人口结构的发展状况进行研究。 人口思想和理论在国内外都已得到了系统的发展，人口结构理论方面的研究也初步形成体系，这些都是开展人口结构预测研究的理论基础。根据我国的实际情况，计划生育政策是人口研究还必须考虑的现实基础。用于人口预测的方法很多，系统动力学仿真便是其中的一种，该方法在解决复杂系统问题时具有多方面的优势。本研究通过对福建省人口现状和人口构成系统的分析，使用系统动力学方法建立了福建省人口构成系统仿真模型，模型包括了年龄结构、性别结构、产业结构、文化结构和城乡结构等人口结构内容，应用Vensim软件运行模型，得到了仿真结果。 通过对仿真结果的分析，本研究得到了以下主要结论：未来几年，福建省人口总量将继续缓慢增长，到2010年达3608万人，少年儿童人口比例逐步下降，2010年时该比例低于17％，老年人口比例持续上升，2010年达10.47％，人口抚养比在预测期内会保持在0.4以下的低水平，性别比在低年龄段明显偏高，2010年达121.85，人口文化结构不断得到优化，人口产业结构由发展型向现代型转变，人口城乡结构稳步提升。 系统仿真模型具有“战略实验室”的美誉及功能，在论文的第五部分里，给出了如何通过政策参数变动来调控系统的案例和做法。最后提出了优化福建省人口构成系统的若干对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The ageing of population, the gender imbalance of the total population, how to obtain employment in face of the change of work force plus the unsuitable population ratio of urban and rural are all the main problems which lie in the system of Chinese population now, these problems are all in connection with population structure. Many problems also lie in population structure of Fujian province in recent years, it is necessary to forecast population structure of Fujian province in the future and to study the progress of population structure.The thought and theory about population have already developed systematically in abroad and China, the theory of population structure has also come into being an elementary system, so there is an academic base for the research on forecast about population structure. According to Chinese facts, it is necessary to think about the policy of family planning when the research is being done. There are many ways and means to forecast population of which System Dynamics is the one, System Dynamics has many advantages of solving the problem on complex system. Using System Dynamics, an emulational model about population structure of Fujian province is constructed by analyzing the population actualities and the system of population structure. The model covers the population structure of age and sex and industry and education and town to countryside. Running the model by Vensim software, results are obtained.According to the results, some conclusions are drawn, in the future few years, the population of Fujian province will keep up increasing slowly, in 2010 it will be 36.08 million, the proportion of juvenile and children will decline gradually, in 2010 it will fall below 17%, the proportion of the elderly will rise continually, in 2010 it will be 10.47%, the proportion of being supported population will remain below 0.4 a low level in the period of forecast, the proportion between male and female is unsuitable obviously in younger population, in 2010 it will be 121.85, the population structure of education will be optimized constantly, the population structure of industry is transforming from the type of development to modern type, the population structure of town to countryside will be upgraded.Emulational system model has a good name "Strategical Laboratory", how to regulate the system by altering the parameters of policies is presented in the fifth part of this paper. Couple of suggestions is raised to optimize the population structure of Fujian province in the last.更多还原