【作者】 刘亮；

【导师】 贝政新； 王彦国；

【作者基本信息】 苏州大学 ， 金融学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 上市公司陷入财务危机是一个渐进的过程,因此很有可能在财务危机发生之前使用有效的方法预先发现。本文以沪深两市上市公司为研究对象,以是否因最近两年连续亏损而被实行“退市风险警示”,界定其是否陷入财务危机的标志,运用多元判别分析的方法,采用涵盖上市公司财务状况各个方面的多个变量,利用各上市公司已经审计的财务报表中的财务数据,寻找尽可能准确的预测上市公司财务危机的变量和预测模型。比较两个模型的预测结果发现,多元判别分析和Logistic回归模型的判别效果接近,但均不够理想,需要建立以定量模型为主、定性分析为辅的上市公司财务危机预测方式,以提高预测的准确性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since it is a gradual process for listed companies to plunge into financial crisis, it is desirable to discern the potential risks in advance. This paper, with the adoption of Multiple Discriminant Analyzing Approach and Logistic Regression Method, tries to find out optimal variables and financial crisis predicting model for Chinese listed companies based on audited accounting data.However, as far as predict capacity is concerned, both of them show some weakness, and we need to establish a predict approach of listed company’s financial crisis, which not only depending on quantity model, but also depending on quality analysis as a supplement, for promoting the prediction accuracy.更多还原