【作者】 廖为鲲；

【导师】 蔡国梁；

【作者基本信息】 江苏大学 ， 系统工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 本课题主要研究非线性综合评价和预测方法及其在地方经济发展评价分析和预测中的应用。地方经济发展的评价分析与预测，对于制定出正确的，科学的地方经济发展战略，跟踪监测战略实施进程，及时为政府决策部门反馈信息，以便适时得进行宏观调整，具有显著的意义。 本课题研究了非线性综合评价方法，如可拓综合评价法、聚类分析法、灰色关联度评价法、模糊综合评价法、主成分分析法、因子分析法等评价方法，并利用因子分析法对江苏省各城市经济发展进行了评价。首先，建立江苏省经济发展评价指标体系；然后，在建立的评价指标体系的基础上运用因子分析法，把多个影响城市经济发展状况的经济指标，按相关性大小组成几个综合经济指标，根据城市在这几个综合指标上的得分，对城市的经济发展水平进行评价。最后，在评价结果的基础上，提出推动江苏省经济发展的几点政策措施的建议。 混沌经济时间序列的预测方法研究是混沌经济非线性动力系统的重要内容。本课题利用混沌动力学原理通过混沌时间序列的相空间重构，运用局域预测方法，建立了预测模型。并用其确立的混沌动力学模型对1985-2004年江苏省GDP、工业生产总值、第一产业值进行了预测。把此预测结果与实际值进行了比较，结果证明误差较小。同时还将此预测结果与用灰色GM(1，1)法建它的预测模型的预测结果相比，结果表明混沌时间序列建立的模型其预测效果更好。最后，利用此模型对2005年、2010年、2015年的江苏省GDP、工业生产总值、第一产业值进行了预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper mainly studies the non-linear comprehensive appraisal and prediction, as well as its application to the assessment and forecasting of the local economy which is significant to make out the accurate and scientific strategies of the local economic development, to track and monitor the process of the application of these strategies, to feedback messages for the authority timely in order to make macro adjustment.This paper researches such non-linear assessing methods as the extension multi-factorial evaluation, the cluster analysis, the evaluation method with grey correlation degree, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the principal component analysis, the factor analysis and assess the economic development of each city of Jiangsu Province based on factor analysis. Firstly, we build the assessing system of indicators of the economic development in Jiangsu province. Then, based on the assessing system of indicators, according to relations, we replace several economic indicators about urban economy with less comprehensive economic indicators through factor analysis. Referring to the score of each city in these comprehensive economic indicators, we assess the economic development of each city. At last, with regard to the result of the appraisal, we give some proposals to improve economic development of Jiangsu Province.The research on forecasting method of chaotic economic time series is the important part of the nonlinear chaotic economic dynamic systems. Based on chaotic dynamic principle, phase space reconstruction of chaotic time series and part forecasting, a chaotic phase space model is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed method is tested by comparison of the real data with the regulative forecasting model for GDP, the gross industrial product, the first-industry product of 1985-2004 in Jiangsu Province. At last, we predict GDP, the gross industrial product, the first-industry product of 2005, 2010 and 2015 in Jiangsu Province.更多还原