【作者】 刘自强；

【导师】 李志忠；

【作者基本信息】 新疆师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 黄河是世界上含沙量最大的一条河流,其多泥沙河流的特性决定了它的下游地区河道易淤积,沿岸洪水暴发频繁。对黄河下游洪水灾害损失做出预估对整个黄河下游地区防洪体系的建立有着重要的现实意义,一方面,有助于制定合理的防洪措施,同时对各种防洪措施进行效益评价和方案优选,另一方面也是对黄河沿岸各地进行洪灾区划的基础工作。本文以灾害地理学和灾害经济学的理论知识为指导,以GIS技术为依托,拟对黄河下游如果发生洪水灾害所造成的经济损失做出预估。由于黄河下游洪水灾害涉及河北、山东、河南、安徽、四个省百余个县,洪水影响区地域广泛,是一个典型的大尺度范围的洪水灾害损失评估。根据黄河洪水灾害和大尺度洪水灾害损失评估的特点,本文的评估其主要包括以下步骤:(1)运用先进的基于GIS的洪水演进模型,对黄河下游地区主要可能发生的洪水状况进行预测模拟,确定出如果发生黄河洪水会淹没的范围和淹没水深。(2)对洪水所涉及的各县域的社会经济财产进行统计整理,构建出各类社会经济财产数据库,同时对各类社会经济财产进行空间化处理。(3)对前人确定的洪灾损失率进行总结,根据地域的相似性和时间的临近性进行修正,最后确定出适合本文评估的洪水灾害损失率。(4)将洪水演进模型确定的洪水淹没范围和水深的图层和各类社会经济财产空间化数据相叠加,通过计算可以评估出洪水对黄河下游地区社会经济的总体影响评估和直接以及间接经济损失。经过评估,可以得到以下结论:(1)黄河下游如果发生决溢洪水,淹没区域较大,将有数万平方公里,数千万人口遭受洪水侵害,对两岸的社会经济发展构成严重威胁。(2)黄河下游发生决溢洪水将对各类交通设施都会产生不同程度的破坏,一方面造成了严重的直接经济损失,另一方面由于交通的中断将会洪灾的影响与损失迅速波及到其它区域,对我国一些重要的战略物资的供需平衡产生重大的负面影响。(3)黄河下游如果发生决溢洪水,将对两岸造成重大的经济损失,不管是在北岸还是在南岸一般总损失值均在千亿元左右。更多还原

【Abstract】 Yellow river is the most sandiness quantity river in the world. Because of its characteristic, Yellow river channel is easy to silt and flood breaks out frequently. To assess ahead loss of flood is importantly significance for establishing preventing flood system. On the one hand, it is helpful to constitute reasonable measure of protecting flood, at the same, evaluate all sorts of measure and choose the best one. On the other hand, it is basal work for class of flood affecting region in lower reaches of Yellow river region.Based on direction of theoretics of disaster geography and disaster economics and application of GIS, this pa per predict and assess loss of flood in lower reaches of Yellow river. Because of including Hebei, Henan, Shandong and Anhui province and more than hundred countries, it is typical large scale flood disaster assessment.Based on characteristic of flood disaster of Yellow river and large scale flood disaster assessment, this paper’s work step is followed:(1)Applying model of digital simulating flood-waterlog based on GIS and confirming area submerged and flood’s deep.(2)Taking statistic, coordinating and spatializing all kinds of social and economic property in submerged area.(3)Using for reference loss rate, which some former researcher confirm through investigating after some flood disaster, to assess loss rate of this paper.(4)Intersecting maps between scope and water deep of flood submerged area and spatial data of all kinds of social and economic property in submerged area.Through assessing, flowing conclusion was gained:(1)If Yellow river overflow, more than ten thousands sq.km land and ten millions people will be submerged and development of social and economic of submerged area will be grievous intimidate.(2) Flood will destroy all sorts of means of transportation. On the one hand, it will cause grievous direct economy loss, on the other hand, intermit of traffic will affect other area and cause disadvantage effect on balance of important stratagem material in our country.(3) If Yellow river overflows, there is great economy loss in both更多还原