企业项目管理的财务预警概念模型研究

【作者】 景崇毅；

【导师】 李玉萍；

【作者基本信息】 西北工业大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 项目管理是现代企业普遍采用的一种运作模式，广泛应用于IT、金融、服务以及工程等诸多行业。项目管理至今已有许多成熟的理论成果，但在高度不确定环境下的企业项目管理方面，国外的研究也不过是20余年的历史。在我国项目管理水平相对落后，成功率相对较低，就其原因，主要是受到财务因素的影响。相关调查显示，成本超支的现象在项目中非常普遍，大约有55％的项目成本都超出了预算，只有不到一半的项目能达到目标成本。对企业项目的财务问题进行研究具有迫切性和现实意义。 本文在调查的基础上展开对企业项目财务预警的初步研究，以建立一个财务预警的概念模型，探析在项目管理中可能导致财务危机的因素及其它们之间的联系，识别“危险信息”，评估其对项目财务的危害性质及危险程度。笔者在阅读相关文献的基础上首先提炼出变量体系。这个变量体系包含了导致项目财务危机的可能性因素，并据此构建财务预警系统的概念模型以及提出相应的假设。论文提炼了两种类型变量：环境变量和人为变量，并用9个指标对两种变量进行了测度。然后针对模型的假设，搜集相关数据信息，采用因子分析法、相关分析法以及结构方程模型等方法，利用SPSS11.0和LISREL8.53软件对数据进行分析和处理，对模型和假设进行了初步验证。得出了如下结论：(1)企业文化跟高层支持弱相关，而两因子对人为变量的各因子都存在显著的路径关系；(2)矩阵式项目组织形式能够明晰责权，提高突发事件处理能力以及增强财务风险意识；(3)构建基于信息化软件的工作网络平台能够大大降低财务风险，提高处理突发事件的能力：(4)人为变量对项目财务风险有着非常巨大的影响，是降低项目财务风险的首要控制变量。并针对这些结论提出了相关的对策和建议，论文最后指出了进一步研究的方向和重点。更多还原

【Abstract】 Project management is an operation mode widely used by modern enterprises in IT, finance, service and engineering industries and so on. So far there are plenty of theoretic productions on project management, however, overseas studies on enterprises project management under significantly uncertain circumstances have a short history of almost 20 years. Project management in our country was more relative behindhand, the success rate was lower and the reason was finance factors mostly influence. Some related study showed that only 17%of the projects achieved their goals, 50% changed their goals and the residual 33% were usually canceled. The phenomenon of Cost overspending in projects was ubiquitous, the costs of about 55%of all projects overspent relative to their budgets, only less half projects could achieve their budget cost. The study on finance problem in project management is pressing and has its realistic signification.This paper studied the finance early-warning of enterprises projects based on investigations aiming at building a concept model of finance early-warning, detecting the factors that might lead to finance crisis and their interrelations in project management, identifying those so-called "dangerous information" and evaluating the endanger character and degree. Firstly a variable system was proposed based on reading related literatures, which included those presumable factors might lead to project finance crisis, and a concept model of finance early-warning system was constructed, corresponding assumptions were also presented ant the same time. The paper abstracted two types of variables: environment variables and human variables, and measured them using nine indexes. Afterwards, some data information was collected according to the assumptions presented before, through Factor-analysis approach, correlation analysis approach and Structural Equation Model analyzing approaches and so on, using SPSS11.0 and LISREL8.53 software to analyze these data, the model and assumptions were firstly validated. The study results showed some conclusions as following: (1) Corporation culture is mildly related to senior management group, both have a significant path relationship with human variables; (2) Matrix structure of project organization could make the authority and responsibility more clear, improving the ability of dealing with gusty accidents and enhancing the sense of finance crisis; (3) Constructing a work network platform based on information software can tremendously decrease finance crisis and increase the ability of dealing with gusty accidents; (4) Human variables have a very great impact on the project finance crisis, which is the primary controlling variable decreasing finance crisis of project. And some countermeasures are presented according to these conclusions, finally the paper pointed out the farther studying orientation and emphases.更多还原