【作者】 管运章；

【导师】 岳华；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 金融学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 自20世纪70年代以来，国际上爆发了一百多次货币危机，其中有3／4左右发生在新兴市场国家。货币危机的频繁性、突发性、传染性和巨大的破坏性不仅给危机发生国造成了深重的灾难，对国际金融稳定也构成了严重的影响。研究货币危机的理论亦因此成为了国际经济和金融学中的前沿课题，不仅更新换代频繁，而且仍在发展之中。 本文主要研究了货币危机的成因、影响，中国容易引发货币危机的内生性因素及其防范危机的对策建议。理论和现实都已证明：中间汇率制度政策透明度低、承诺可信性程度低，且存在隐性担保问题，因而较两极汇率制度更易引发货币危机；新兴市场国家的货币危机经常由银行危机引发；国际资本的过度流入然后突然终止和逆转易于引发资本账户危机；强迫外汇储备执行多重任务目标不但不能达到目的反而会间接增加货币投机攻击的手段；货币体系的内在缺陷是货币危机的根源之一，而货币危机的频繁爆发反过来促进了国际货币体系的演变。货币危机的爆发会对一国的金融、实体经济和政治稳定造成深重的危害。中国在经济改革过程中也不可避免的产生了一系列的金融风险，比如，国有银行由于历史及体制的原因，在技术上已经破产；现行汇率制度的缺陷会影响我国维持币值稳定的承诺的公信力；国际资本流动的规模和期限结构不仅恶化了国内投资的效率，而且更进一步地将我国置于国际金融动荡的风险之中；中央银行缺乏独立性，被迫接受相互冲突的多重任务目标而无法全力保障外部均衡。因此，如果不谨慎防范，中国也有爆发货币危机的可能。针对上述风险，中国可以通过以下措施防范货币危机，微观层面上，改革银行体系，提高银行效率；中观层面上，完善金融市场以利于风险的分散和化解；宏观层面上，合理有序开放资本账户并逐步加大人民币汇率的浮动性；国际层面上，加强货币合作，合力应对风险；构建有效的危机早期预警系统可大大提高我国防范货币危机的能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 More than 100 currency crises have taken place in the world since 1970s, in which around three quarters are in the emerging market countries. The frequency, paroxysmal character, contamination and enormous destruction of currency crises have severe impact not only on the occurring countries, but also the international finance stability. Research theory on currency crises became pioneer field in international economics and finance, updating and developingThis paper mainly researches on the origin and impact of currency crisis, the endogenetic factors of and prevention of currency crisis in China. It has been proven in theory and reality that the characteristics of intermediate exchange rate regimes are lower policy transparency, lower extent of promise credibility and worse implicit insurance, which give rise to currency crises more compared to two-poles-regimes. The currency crises in emerging market countries often arise from banking industry. The fetch-up and reversion of excess inflow of international capital result in crisis in capital account. The multi-task of foreign exchange reserve not only accomplishes nothing, but also increases the means of speculation indirectly. The interior defection of international monetary system is one of the roots of monetary crisis, at the same time, the frequent burst out of monetary crises promote the evolvement of international monetary system. The burst out of currency crises will imperil the political stability, real economy and finance deeply. Inevitably a series of financial risks come into being in the process of economic reforms of China, such as the technical bankruptcy of the state-owned banks because of historical and systemic reasons, the interior defection of existing exchange rate regime results in the absence of public credibility of the promise of maintaining RMB’s stability, the scale and term structure of international capital flow not only deteriorate the efficiency of domestic investment, but further put us in the risk of international finance turbulence, and the lack of independence of the central bank make it be compelled to accept the conflicted multi-task, with no capability to safeguard exterior balance. Therefore, there is possibility of suffering currency crisis in China without cautious prevention. We suggest that China construct the prevention system correspondingly as follows:更多还原