【作者】 苏君毅；

【导师】 过仲阳；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 以往的研究表明，暴雨、龙卷风、雷暴大风等强对流天气，与中尺度对流系统(Mesoscale Convective System，简称MCS)的演变发展有直接关系。而我国青藏高原上形成的MCS，它的移动传播与长江流域的暴雨洪涝灾害关系密切。因此，研究青藏高原上MCS的时空分布特征，探讨MCS形成发展和移动传播的条件，对于我国长江流域防涝减灾工作具有重要的指示意义。 本文使用日本GMS红外辐射亮温(Tbb)资料，利用MASCOTTE(maximum spatial correlation tracking technique,基于最大空间相关的MCS追踪法)法对1999～2000年夏季青藏高原上的中尺度对流系统进行了自动追踪。在此基础上，运用国家卫星气象中心中期数值预报业务系统(T106)客观分析场资料研究了影响高原上MCS形成和东移的环境物理量场条件，结合长江流域370个站点的日降雨量资料，探讨了高原上MCS移动传播与长江流域暴雨过程之间的关系。研究成果对于揭示高原上MCS发生、发展和东移传播的机理以及减少长江流域因暴雨所造成的损失具有重要的实践价值。 论文共分六章。第一章在分析MCS研究现状的基础上，对论文的研究内容及研究思路作了介绍。第二章运用MASCOTTE法对高原上的MCS进行了自动追踪，得到了1999～2000年6-8月各月MCS的移动路径、面积、强度、形状、生命史等信息，研究了夏季高原上MCS初生时的时空分布特征及MCS各种参数的日变化特征。第三章对1999年东移出高原的典型MCS个例在不同发展阶段(初生、成熟、消散)时的周边环境物理量场空间分布特征进行了分析，获取了高原上有利于MCS生成和东移出高原的动力和热力条件。第四章运用空间数据挖掘中的贝叶斯方法，对东移出高原的MCS移动方向进行了预测。第五章探讨了青藏高原上MCS的移动传播与长江流域暴雨过程之间的关系。第六章对论文的研究成果进行了概括和总结。更多还原

【Abstract】 Previous study showed that strong convective weathers, for instance, heavy rainfall, tornado, thunderstorm, etc., have close relationship with the origin and evolution of Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). And the movement and propagation of MCS over the Tibetan Plateau in China have important influence on severe rainstorm and flood disasters of Yangtze River Basin. Therefore, studying the features of spatial-time of MCS over the Tibetan Plateau and the conditions of MCS’s origin, evolution and movement out of Tibetan Plateau, is of great meaning to reduce the loss of Yangtze River Basin due to the disaster weather.In this paper, the trajectories of MCS over the Tibetan Plateau in China in summer 1999-2000 are automatically tracked using GMS (Geostationary Meteorological Satellite) brightness temperature (Tbb) by MASCOTTE (Maximum Spatial Correlation Tracking Technique). Based on these, T106 numerical products have been used to find the conditions of environmental physical field values which have effect on the origin and movement of the MCS over the Tibetan Plateau. Furthermore, daily rainfall data of nearly 200 observation stations in Yangtze River Basin are also been used to find the relationship between the trajectories of MCS over the Tibetan Plateau and heavy rainfall process in Yangtze River Basin. These are of important practical value to discover the reason of MCS’s origin, development, eastward moving and propagation, so as to reduce the disaster weather loss of Yangtze River Basin.There are six chapters in this paper. Chapter one discusses recent study results of the MCS, based on these, methodology of this paper is provided. In chapter two, using MASCOTTE technique, some information about MCS, including trajectories, size, intensity, shape, life duration etc., are obtained form June to August in 1999 and 2000. We also study the features of spatial-time of MCS over the Tibetan Plateau in summer and the characteristics of MCS’s diurnal variation. In chapter three, environmental更多还原