东亚钉住美元制研究

【作者】 肖劲；

【导师】 冯用富；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 金融学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 上世纪90年代末的东南亚金融危机已经过去了很多年,但直到现在不少经济学者仍然在反思危机带来的教训,尤其是东南亚各国集体地钉住美元汇率制度对金融危机直接的引导作用。今天东亚小型经济体所表现出来的一系列经济特征,如共同的经济周期与升值压力、飞速增长的净出口与外汇储备等。将这些特征与美国近几年的经济走势、美元的下跌联系起来,很容易产生怀疑:东亚国家又回到钉住美元的汇率安排了吗?这是本文想要考察的第一个问题,即探寻东亚国家的汇率安排在危机之后是变得更灵活了呢,还是滑回到危机前的钉住美元制了呢?如果东亚各国的汇率安排事实上是回到了钉住美元,或者说与美元联动的软钉住,那么,是什么原因,换句话说,是什么样的约束条件使得东亚各国不顾东南亚金融危机的前车之鉴而“毅然”回到钉住美元的这种缺乏灵活性与稳定性的汇率制度呢?要回答本文所提出的的两个问题,又涉及到以下几个关键问题:第一、如何来判断危机之后东亚各国的实际汇率安排?就像利率与汇率有名义与实际之分,各国的汇率制度也会有官方的、名义上的(de jure)安排与实际上实行的(de facto)安排之分,另外一些国际组织、学术机构也会有自己不同的判断和划分。那么,如何把握各国的汇率的真实安排呢?第二、考察这些问题的背景是东南亚金融危机结束后的近几年,而且研究对象中的大多数在危机中受到了重创,按逻辑这显然出现了矛盾,危机前实行钉住制的国家在经历了金融危机后又在选择这种固定汇率制度。难道钉住制不是导致这些国家步入危机的根源之一吗?这就需要重新考察钉住制的缺陷以及与金融危机的关联。第三、经济学告诉我们任何选择都是在一定约束条件下做出的,因此要回答为什么东亚各国会作出这样的选择,关键是分析东亚各国在选择汇率制度时面临的约束条件。弄清楚约束条件之后,才有可能对东亚各国的行为作出解释。但是开放经济条件下一国面临的宏观经济环境是非常复杂的,怎么从中提炼出关键的约束条件来呢?更多还原

【Abstract】 The finance crisis happened at the end of last century in Southeast Asia has already passed very many years, but until now many economical scholars have been thinking how it happened, especially the pegging regime adopted by nearly all the countries before the crisis. Today the East Asian small economies display a series of economical characteristics, like common economical cycle and revaluation pressure, rapid growth in net export and foreign exchange reserves, etc. These characteristics, together with the trends of US economy and US dollar, have showed some implication: Has East Asian countries returned to US dollar pegging system? This is the first question which this article wants to inspect, namely inquiring about East Asian country exchange rate arrangement after crisis. If the East Asian countries’exchange rate arrangement in fact returns to dollar pegging, then, what is the reason or constrains behind the choice of the monetary authority that make them to do this? Before we start, there three questions need to be clear.After first, how to judge the real exchange rate regime of East Asia? Like the difference between normal and real interest rate and the exchange rate, there are also difference, between, say, the name (de jure) arranges and real(de facto) pattern of arrangement, moreover some international organizations, the academic organization also have the their own judgment and classification. Then, how to find the truth?Second, when thinking the background of the problem and see further, you may feel confused, why the state of the economy today drew us a picture like that? Wasn’t the pegging system that sanded the countries up? This needs us look back to the weakness of the pegging regime and the relationship between pegging system and monetary crisis.Third, the economics tells us any choice is made under certain constraint condition, therefore we must find the constraint condition更多还原