【作者】 刘群秀；

【导师】 张明海；

【作者基本信息】 东北林业大学 ， 野生动物保护与利用， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 本研究估算了2005和2006年冬季完达山林区马鹿环境容纳量,并对该林区马鹿进行种群生存力分析。 通过野外布设样方,测定马鹿生境的食物供给量及其营养成分;利用喂饲实验,测定马鹿冬季的日营养需求;结合研究地区生境类型,以干物质、代谢能和氮为基础确定完达山林区野生马鹿的营养容纳量。研究结果表明:马鹿栖息生境食物营养成分中,氮的含量超出马鹿日常需求量,不能成为种群的限制因子,我们将代谢能作为估算容纳量的基础物质,将完达山林区马鹿营养容纳量定为10082头。受雪被厚度等其他环境因子的影响,两年估算的容纳量数值存在一定差异。 根据已经掌握的数据,结合野外实际调查,确定完达山林区马鹿种群参数;应用旋涡模型对其未来100年的种群动态及灭绝概率做出预测,模拟次数为100次。研究结果表明:在模拟情况下,研究地区的马鹿种群平均灭绝时间约为55年,灭绝概率为100%。理想条件下,种群能够快速增长,并维持在环境容纳量水平,说明该地区马鹿种群有很大增殖潜力。灵敏度分析结果认为:偷猎是造成马鹿种群濒危的最主要因素(p<0.01),该参数的变动会直接影响种群动态,其次是雌体死亡率(p<0.01)、环境容纳量(p<0.01)和环境波动(p<0.01)。近交衰退(S_x=-0.15)和雄鹿死亡率(p>0.05)对种群动态影响不大,但仍存在潜在的负面影响。应针对影响种群的主要因子制定相应的长期有效的保护和管理办法,其中,严禁狩猎、禁止滥砍滥伐两项应加以强调,以维持完达山林区马鹿种群的长期生存。更多还原

【Abstract】 We estimated the environment carrying capacity of red deer in Wandashan forestry area, Heilongjiang in the winter of 2005 and 2006, meanwhile, population viability analysis was conducted on this endangered species.Sampling method was taken to numerate the amount of forage and the nutrition of them was determined to calculate all food provision for red deer by the habitat. Raising experiment was conducted to measure the daily nutrient requirement of red deer in winter. Combining these data with vegetation, based on mass material, metabolism energy and Nitrogen we estimated the carrying capacity of Wandashan forestry area for red deer. The results indicated that this area can sustain 10792 red deer in winter estimated based on mass material, 10082 based on metabolism energy and 16564 based on Nitrogen. By determining the nutrient composition of forage taken by red deer, we found that the density of Nitrogen was much higher than the amount really needed, while metabolism was lower, which result in over taking Nitrogen when enough energy was met. Therefore we presume metabolism energy to be standardized variable to estimate carrying capacity for its limited amount. For the influence of snow and other climate impacts, there is certain difference between two years.The population parameters were determined by field research and the data already grasped, and the vortex model was used to predict the future dynamics of red deer population in Wandashan forestry area. The estimating years was 100 with iteration of 100. The research results revealed that the red deer population in Wandashan forestry area did no possess an optimistic future with the average extinct time of 55 years and probability of 100% when simulated as the real condition. However, the population can increase quickly and reach the carrying capacity level with out catastrophe and inbreeding, which indicated that the red deer population in Wandashan forestry area possessed great increase potential. To understand the importance of each population parameter, we made the sensitivity analysis. The results meant that poaching formed the primary factor causing the extinction trend of red deer population in ’Wandashan forestry area (p<0.01) for the population dynamics changed greatly with the fluctuation of hunting pressure. Other impacts of population dynamics contained mortality of female individuals(r<0.01), carrying capacity(r<0.01) and stochastic environment (r<0.01).Inbreeding and the mortality of male individuals affected population slightly (p>0.05). According to the research results, sustainable effective conservation and management policies should be established focusing on the factors influencing population dynamics. Prohibiting hunting and logging should be emphasized to guarantee the long-term survival of red leer population inWandashan forestry area.更多还原