【作者】 王晓丽；

【导师】 王云鹏；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 载运工具运用工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 汽车工业的快速发展和汽车保有量的急剧增加,使我国的能源与环境正面临着严峻的挑战。节约石油资源,改善汽车能源消费结构,积极开发和推广使用新型清洁能源、替代燃料汽车,实现汽车能源多元化新格局已成为我国汽车工业发展的重要课题。本项目结合国家“863”计划项目-“我国多元化的汽车能源战略及政策研究”,对现阶段国内外汽车能源使用状况、相关政策以及各种清洁能源的技术发展水平和发展趋势进行了系统分析,同时对影响我国汽车能源多元化发展的有关能源供应、环境效益以及市场推广等因素进行了研究,对目前我国为促进汽车能源多元化发展所采取的有关政策水平进行了模糊综合评价,在此基础上,提出了适合我国资源特点并满足汽车工业和国民经济与社会可持续发展的多元化发展目标以及政策建议。论文在论述汽车能源多元化的内涵及发展意义的基础上,分析了国内外汽车能源多元化发展现状以及促进和实施汽车能源多元化发展所采取的有关政策,研究了现阶段主要清洁能源、替代燃料汽车的技术发展水平、发展趋势及其应用前景,阐述了我国汽车能源多元化发展中存在的问题;基于生命周期理论对不同种类清洁能源车辆的使用成本、环境影响因素进行比较分析。从能源供应、汽车市场需求以及基础设施和配套体系建设等方面,对汽车能源多元化发展过程中的有关影响因素进行了定性分析。应用模糊综合评判法分析了我国目前燃气汽车和乙醇汽油汽车的政策水平分别为半积极型和积极型;应用灰色关联分析法对燃气汽车发展的有关影响因素进行了关联度分析,建立燃气汽车灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,对未来燃气汽车的发展进行预测。最后对近期我国各类车用替代、清洁燃料的发展目标及其可行性进行了论述和分析,对我国汽车能源多元化的发展提出了一些有益的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The highly development of automotive industry and the gross rapid increase ofautomotives caused serious challenges to our national energy and environment.As a result, petroleum shortage, energy can’t fulfill the requirements as well asair pollution becomes more severity. Therefore, saving petroleum resource,reforming the automotive energy consumption structure, exploiting andextending the use of clean or alternative fuel vehicles, carrying out the newsituation of automotive energy diversity has become an important topic for thedevelopment of our national automotive industry.Based on the consideration of energy, environment and sustainable developmentof economy, each country would make the developing policy and set a clearstrategy target through the effect of government management to the automotiveindustry, also, definite the developing direction for the automotive energydiversity. By the way of establishing the consumption policy and different taxduty to alternative fuel vehicles, encouraging and inducing people to buy anduse clean energy automotives. In order to promote advanced technology to bedeveloped and used, as well as alternative fuel vehicle to be industrialization,more and more stringent compel lent regulations which concerned environmentprotecting and energy saving are made.Combined with research works of the project “Research on the Strategy andPolicy for China Automotive Energy Diversity”, which is a subject of “863”program from Ministry of Science and Technology, this paper carry through theresearches to the current status of automotive energy, developing trends andinfluence characteristics about diversity development. Meanwhile currentlyapplied policies were analyzed and assessed by the method of Fuzzy SyntheticEvaluation. As a result of analysis for the influences characteristics, policiesassessments and forecasted results for the number of alternative fuel vehicles,automotive diversity development target as well as some policy suggestions areproposed in this paper. The conclusions of this research will be helpful toachieve the sustainable development of automotive industry. It will also beuseful to set up a good foundation for the development of clean energyautomotives.At first, the main contents of automotive energy diversity and the strategysignificance to develop the diversity are discussed in this paper. Then, both ofinternal and external development status as well as applied policies forautomotive diversity are analyzed. Existing problems in the development ofautomotive diversity are talked about briefly. The technology developmentstatus and its application in the future for mainly clean energy automotives andalternative fuel vehicles are analyzed and summarized. Based on the theory oflife cycle assessment, environment influence characteristics and costing fordifferent types of clean energy automotive are compared and analyzed. On theconsideration of energy supply, market demand and the construction for basicestablishment and correlative system, those concerned influence characteristicsare analyzed generally. Through the analysis, these conclusions were drawn asfollowing. Biodiesel, coal fuel, ethanol and methanol fuel have the advantages toextend its use as alternative fuels, since there are no need for either enginemodified or gas station rebuild. Also, biodiesel, ethanol and methanol all belongto the regeneration energy and would have a big development in the future.Electricity vehicles, hybrid vehicles and fuel cell vehicles have to improve bothof their technology and vehicle performance, and cut down its cost. So it will bedifficult to extend its use recently. With the technology becomes much matureand the industrialization expands , hybrid vehicles maybe have a rapiddevelopment in several years.Secondly, taking the CNG, LPG and Ethanol automotives as our research object,development policies and measurements are analyzed and assessed as itsimportance by the analytical hierarchy method. Conclusions were drawn thatfoundation and construction are much important to the development of CNG andLPG automotives, and administration and research investment are muchimportant to the ethanol automotives. According to the results of policiesimportance assessment, conclusions are obtained by the method of fuzzysynthetic evaluation that policies of CNG, LPG and ethanol automotives aresemi-active and active respectively. Influences characteristics for thedevelopment of NG, LPG automotives are analyzed by the method of grayrelation analysis. A forecast model of gray GM (1,1) was set up. According tothe forecasted results, the number of CNG, LPG automotives in 2020 will be7.1% of the general automotive number, which is difference compared with the10% requirement. Therefore, in order to carry out the adjustment andoptimization of automotive energy structure, much active policy should beapplied to promote the development of automotive energy diversity.At last, according to the results of policies analysis and forecast research, andcombined with the general development target of our national automotiveenergy diversity, the development targets in 2010 and possibility analysis foreach kind of clean energy and alternative fuel automotives were discussed in thispaper. Also, some useful suggestions, which will be helpful and adaptable tomaintain our sustainable development of automotive industry, are proposed aswell.更多还原