【作者】 刘金鹏；

【导师】 南忠仁；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 环境科学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 水资源短缺,生态环境脆弱是制约西部地区经济、社会发展的重要因素。在国家“西部大开发”政策的实施过程中,如何协调水资源与人口、经济、社会之间的关系,如何处理好水资源开发与生态环境保护的关系,乃是西部地区可持续发展所要解决的关键问题。 研究区包括位于甘肃省中部的榆中、渭源、临洮、定西、陇西、会宁六县区,现状水资源总量为2.14亿m~3,其中地表水资源量1.89亿m~3,地下水可开采量0.25亿m~3。现状水资源开发程度达66.7%,已经比较高,但区域内人均水资源仅为137 m~3左右,远低于我国平均水平(2200 m~3)。由于水资源因素的制约,区域内社会经济水平低下、生态环境恶化现象严重。随着社会发展的不断进步,未来水资源短缺问题将更加突出。因此,有必要通过科学的方式对研究区未来水资源做出合理的分析和预测,保证其未来经济、社会和生态环境的可持续发展。本论文研究的目的正是想通过以研究当地水资源承载能力为途径,探索一条适合甘肃中部干旱地区经济、社会和生态协调发展的新路。 1、以多目标规划为基础,以经济、社会、生态为综合目标,建立了多目标情景模型,对区域现状水资源承载能力进行了分析。结果表明:在分别以2003年甘肃省经济与社会发展目标、2003年全国小康水平经济与社会发展目标、2020年以定西市为代表的经济与社会发展目标为基础,对区域现状水资源承载能力进行分析后,在满足各方案经济、社会发展目标后,区域最大可承载人口分别为59.97、53.66、46.15万人。现状人口为135.11万人,处于超承载状态。 2、依据研究区发展规划目标,在不同方案下对研究区可持续发展需水情景进行了预测。根据研究结果表明:在所选用的研究区未来可持续发展规划方案下,研究区2020年人口将达到151.36万人,人均工农业收入为9471.0元,人均粮食产量达到400公斤,生态需水量满足临界要求,基本上达到了研究区发展规划目标。在此方案下,研究区规划年总需水量分别为:2010年为3.11亿m~3,2020年为3.92亿m~3。需水量缺口2010年为0.97亿m~3,2020年为1.78亿m~3。 3、根据研究结果,针对水资源缺乏问题,提出实施跨流域(区域)调水政策是解决研究区水资源危机、实现区域可持续发展的根本措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Faced with the problems of the water resources shortage and the fragile ecosystem environment, it’ s important to Chinese western region make the development of society and resources in rational ways under the strategy of western region great development". Therefore, how to moderate the relationships of the water resources and population, society and economy, how to handle the relationships of development and protection, is a key problem to western region.The Studying region includes Yuzhong, Weiyuan, Lintao, Dingxi, Longxi, and Huining six counties in the middle region of Gansu province, the total amount of water resources in the studying region is 214 million m~3, the total surface water resources is 148 million m3, the total groundwater is 29 million m~3. The water resources development degree in recent situation is up to 66.7%, though higher is, the social economic level is lower and the ecosystem environment is degenerated seriously. However the contradiction of the water supply and demand will more outstanding along with the society development. Therefore, it is necessary that to make a correct analysis and forecast of the future water resources in scientific ways in order to maintain the sustainable development of the studying region. What is the paper’s purpose is just to explore a new way for the middle region of Gansu province to develop it’ s economy, society, ecosystem harmoniously through the studying of the water resources carrying capacity.1. Taking economy, society, ecosystem as a comprehensive objective, the paper analyzed the present wrcc with the multi-objective model. It concluded that under the development objective of three different projects, the region only could support 599.7, 536.6, 461.5 thousands people to live while each project meet the development objective of economy, society and ecosystem. So the present people that about 135.11 ten thousands is overloaded.2. According to the objective of development of the studying region, made a forecast of the water demand that meet the sustainable development under the different project scenario. It stated that under the best sustainable development project, while in 2020, the people’snumbers of the studying region will arrive at 1.5136 million. The people’s average incomes will be 9471.0-yuan RMB. The individual possession of the food will be 400kg. The rate of the demand for water of ecosystem is 25%. And the total amount of the demand for water will be 311 million m3 in 2010, 392 m3 million. Each year the total amount of the shortage of demand for water will be 97 million m3 in 2010,178 million m3 in 2020.3. According to the result of studying, put forward the rational suggestion aimed at the shortage problem of the water resources in the studying region. The suggestion is that:what’s a ultimate measure for the sustainable development in this region is to complete the water diversion project from other catchments or area.更多还原