【作者】 郎燕；

【导师】 汤瑞凉；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 环境科学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 水资源是基础性的自然资源和战略性的经济资源。随着人口的增长、社会经济的发展和人民生活水平的逐步提高,水资源的供需矛盾日益突出。根据目前水资源现状与社会经济发展的需要,如何合理开发利用水资源,协调经济发展和水资源保护之间的关系,保障水资源的永续利用,已成为当前急待解决的问题。 本文详细叙述了需水量预测与污染源预测的基本理论和一般方法,重点介绍了灰色预测的求解方法。分析了水资源保护的基本理论,探讨了水资源保护的内涵、目标及主要内容,研究了水资源的可持续发展战略,并提出具体对策。 在综合考虑经济效益、社会需要和环境影响等的基础上,建立了城镇水资源保护规划的优化模型。运用熵值法将已有的多目标优化模型转化为以综合效益为总目标的统筹考虑经济、社会、环境各项指标值的单一目标优化模型,结合线性规划的方法寻求最优解。 根据吴江城区的实际情况,通过分析水资源环境现状,水资源开发利用程度,对需水量和污染源进行预测,并采用所建立的模型进行水资源保护规划计算,求得研究区域各用水部门的最优用水量与最优排污量。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resources were the basic natural resources and strategical economy resources. With the incessant population increase, the social and economic development, and the people’s living standard improvement, the contradiction of water supply and requirement was becoming more and more obtrusive. How to exploit and utilize water resources reasonably, harmonize the relationship between economic development and water resources protection, and ensure lasting use of water resources on the basis of the existing circumstance of water resources and the demand of social economy development, has become an emergent problem which should be solved.In this paper, the basic theories and methods of water demand prediction and pollution source prediction were elaborated, especially the grey method. The theories of water resources were analyzed, then, the connotation, object and main idea were discussed, fourthermore, the sustainable development stratagem was studied on and the method was proposed.Based on comprehensive consideration of economic benefit, social demand and environment effect, the optimal model of town water resources protection program was established. By use of entropic coefficient method, the multiple-object optimal model was changed into single-object model which was based on the comprehensive benefit considering of economy, society and environment. Finally, the optimal solution of model was obtained by use of linear programming method.Accoding to the actual condition of the city of Wujiang, the existing circumstance and the degree of exploit and utilization of water resources were analyed, and water demand and pollution source were forecasted. In the end, the water resources protection program was studied by the model established, and the optimal water demand quantity and the optimal pollutant discharge were obtained.更多还原