【作者】 马林；

【导师】 马文奇；

【作者基本信息】 河北农业大学 ， 植物营养学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 面对“人口—资源—环境—粮食”问题,我们不得不考虑《饥饿是否会再次敲响中国的大门?》。本文以养分资源为研究对象,用养分流动与循环的方法,建立“中国营养体系养分流动与循环模型”。模型以国民对营养的需求和对环境的影响为驱动力,以营养元素在“植物—动物—人类”的流动为链条,将养分循环研究扩展到整个社会圈。用Microsoft Excel 2003建立数据库,使用Visual Basic编程,建立了中国营养体系养分流动与循环数据库和计算机系统,可以实现定量计算我国各个年份养分在各个体系中的流动情况。 模型功能系统分为查询系统、计算系统。查询系统就是CNFC模型1.0版本,可以实现1980-2004年,种植业系统、畜牧业系统、家庭系统各个输入、输出项目氮、磷养分数量的查询功能。计算系统就是CNFC模型2.0版本,可以实现种植业系统、畜牧业系统、家庭系统各个输入、输出项目的氮、磷养分的自动计算功能。模型结果表明: 1.2004年中国种植业生产系统中氮、磷养分输入量分别为4488万吨、938万吨,输出量分别为3266万吨、641万吨。种植业系统的氮素、磷素分别盈余1222万吨、297万吨。 2.1980-1985年,种植业系统氮素盈余量为负值,亏缺689万吨。1986年以后,种植业系统氮素盈余量变为正值,盈余13569万吨。1980-1989年,种植业系统磷素盈余量为负值,亏缺1042万吨。1990年以后,种植业系统磷素盈余量变为正值,盈余2798万吨。 3.1980年,种植业系统进入大气和水体的氮素分别为469万吨、189万吨,2004年,种植业系统进入大气和水体的氮素分别为1083万吨、247万吨,分别为1980年的2.3倍、1.3倍。1980年,畜牧业系统进入大气和水体的氮素分别为129万吨、133万吨,2004年,畜牧业系统进入大气和水体的氮素分别为333万吨、357万吨,分别为1980年的2.6倍、2.7倍。1980年,家庭系统进入大气和水体的氮素分别为53万吨、119万吨,2004年,家庭系统进入大气和水体的氮素分别为56万吨、238万吨,分别为1980年的1.1倍、2.0倍。畜牧业进入环境的养分比例正在逐年增大。 4.2003年辽宁省、吉林省、黑龙江省畜禽粪尿耕地承载量分别为24t·hm^-2、20t·hm^-2、11t·hm^-2,耕地畜禽粪尿承载量在空间上分布极不平衡。2004年河北省畜禽粪尿耕地承载量为38t·hm^-2、单位耕地粪尿氮承载量为182kg·hm^-2、单位耕地粪尿磷承载量为54kg·hm^-2,承载量大的主要分布在石家庄、唐山、邯郸、保定地区。 5.对2004年中国种植业系统养分流动进行优化,最多能节省氮素资源633万吨。对2004年中国畜牧业系统养分流动进行优化,最多能节省氮素资源1299万吨。优化后,中国种植业系统进入大气和进入水体的氮素将减少到589万吨和124万吨,分别减少54%和50%;中国畜牧业系统进入大气和水体的氮素将减少到258万吨和302万吨,分别减少77%和85%。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the 21st century, China will face the problem of "population - resources -environment - grain". It makes us have to think about Whether the hunger can sound China’s door once more? This article takes nutrient resources as research object. We establish "Nutrient Flow and Cycle Model in China Nutrition System" through the method of the nutrient flow. The model takes the nationality’s demand to the nutrition and the influence to the environment as a driving force, and takes nutrient flow in plant, animal and family system as a chain link. We expand the nutrient flow and cycle research to the entire social circle. We establish database with Microsoft Excel 2003 . We use Visual Basic 6.0 to program.The model functional system is composed of inquiry system, computing system. The inquiry system is just the CNFC model 1.0 editions. It can realize the inquiry function of the nutrient quantity of N and P of each input and output item of the plant system, animal system and family system from 1980 to 2004. The computing system is just the CNFC model 2.0 editions. It can realize the automatic computation function of the N and P nutrient of each input and output item of the plant system, animal system and family system. The model result indicates:1. The nitrogen, phosphorus nutrient input value of plant system of China respectively was 44.88 million tons and 9.38 million tons in 2004. And the nitrogen, phosphorus nutrient output value of plant system of China respectively was 3,2.66 million tons and 6.41 million tons. The nitrogen, phosphorus earnings of China plant system respectively were 12.22 million tons and 2.97 million tons.2. From 1980 to 1985, the nitrogen earning of the plant system was negative, and it lacked 6.89 million tons. But after 1986, the nitrogen earning of the plant system has became a positive value and it is 135.69 million tons. So is the phosphorus. From 1980 to 1989, it lacked 10.42 million tons. But after 1990, the phosphorus earning was 27.98 million tons.3. In 1980, the nitrogen which enters atmospheric and the water body of plant system respectively were 4.69 million tons and 1.89 million tons. But in 2004, the nitrogen which enters atmospheric and the water body of plant system respectively were 10.83 million tons and 2.47 million tons, which were 2.3 times and 1.3 times that of in 1980. In 1980, the nitrogen which enters atmospheric and the water body of animal system respectively were 1.29 million tons and 1.33 million tons. But in 2004, the nitrogenwhich enters atmospheric and the water body of animal system respectively were 3.33 million tons and 3.57 million tons, which were 2.6 times and 2.7 times that of in 1980. In 1980, the nitrogen which enters atmospheric and the water body of family system respectively were 0.53 million tons and 1.19 million tons. But in 2004, the nitrogen which enters atmospheric and the water body of family system respectively were 0.56 million tons and 2.38 million tons, which were 1.1 times and 2.0 times that of in 1980. The proportion of nutrient which enters environment in animal system is increasing year by year,4. The load of animal excretion per hectare of cropland of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang respectively were 24 t ? hm’2, 20 t ? hm’2 and lit" hm"2 in 2003. It distributed in the space was not extremely balanced.The load of animal excretion per hectare of cropland of Hebei was 38 t ? hm"2 in 2004. The load of animal excretion N per hectare of cropland is 182 kg ? hm"2, and P is 54 kg ? hm’2. The greater mainly distributed in Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan and Baoding.5. In 2004, we optimize China plant system , which would save the nitrogen resources 6.33 million tons mostly.We optimize China animal system, which would save the nitrogen resources 12.99 million tons mostly.After optimizing, the nitrogen which enters atmospheric and the water body of crop production system would reduce to 5.89 million tons and 1.24 million tons, which would reduce 54%, 50% respectively. And the nitrogen which enters atmospheric and the water body of animal system would reduce to 2.58 million tons and 3.02 million tons, which would reduce 77% and 85% respectively.更多还原