【作者】 杨慧；

【导师】 吕红平；

【作者基本信息】 河北大学 ， 人口学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 人口老龄化指老年人口比重日益增加的过程,研究发现,我国人口老龄化具有规模大、增长速度快、起步晚、“未富先老”等特点,我国人口老龄化和高龄化速度快、劳动力高龄化和劳动力资源丰富并存,人口老龄化在时间上具有不规则性和累进性。我国人口老龄化对经济发展的影响首先表现为对消费的影响。老年人口作为特殊群体,其消费水平和消费结构与其他年龄组人口显著不同。随着人口老龄化程度的提高,老年人口消费总额和消费比例不断提高,这一特点将在未来25年内得到进一步体现。在老年人口消费结构中,其基本需要已由以饮食为主转变为与健康照料有关的劳务需求为主,这将对我国老龄产业产生较大的吸引力,并将成为促进我国经济增长的新亮点。根据国际经验,人口老龄化会导致劳动年龄人口比例下降和劳动力短缺。由于我国人口老龄化主要是在计划生育政策推动下产生的,而且第一次和第二次生育高峰期出生的人口正处于青壮年时期,因此,我国劳动力资源十分丰富,即使在今后相当长的时期内,也不会出现劳动力短缺问题。不过,人口老龄化会导致劳动年龄人口高龄化。由于人口老龄化必然形成对经济供养、医疗保健及保险福利费需求的不断增长,进而会加重养老经济负担;人口老龄化还会在一定程度上促进以提供老年产品和健康服务为主体的老龄产业的快速发展。本文从我国人口老龄化的实际情况出发,提出了应对人口老龄化的对策建议。继续大力发展国民经济,逐步改变我国“未富”的现状,为应对人口老龄化提供雄厚的物质基础;重点发展一批老年社会福利机构,向社会福利社会化道路迈进,积极开展社区为老服务,加强老年社会服务队伍建设,调整社会福利事业管理职能。在规避老龄化消极影响方面,首先需要在调整产业结构过程中对不同劳动年龄人口的合理分工进行政策引导;其次,着力打造学习型社会,形成“活到老,学到老”的终身教育体系,降低对年长劳动力的再培训成本。针对人口老龄化加重医疗保险费用和养老保障负担问题,开展健康老龄化活动。对于2020年后我国劳动年龄人口比重将会下降的问题,国家应根据人口社会经济的综合发展状况,适时调整人口政策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Aging means the ratio of elderly increasing gradually, going with the decline of mortalityrate and birth rate. In this paper, some characteristics of our country’s aging are found, such asthe scale of elderly is large, the speed of aging is rapid, and compared with the developedcountries, we have a few characters of getting old before being rich and beginning lately, andso on.Aging has some effects on consuming. The ratio and the quantity of elderly consumingare keeping on increasing, and these can accelerate the consuming market’s development. Inthe coming of the 25 years, this will be showed in evidence, and this character will have a bigattraction to the aging industry.In developed countries, for the effect of aging, they are short of labor resource. However,in our country, we still have an abundance of labor resource because of our family planning.Our population scale is large, more than ten million babies are born each year, and the babiesbooming from 1950’s to 1970’s are in the prime of life, so we have an abundant laborresource.Aging does not restrain the advance of productivity either in China or in developedcountries even though aging has effect on the labor force aging.Aging has aggravated economic burden. The reasons are that more and more elderly notonly need a great quantity of economic sustentation, but also a great quantity of medicalhealth care and insurance of material benefits. Aging will accelerate the aging industry ofproviding elderly using products and health care service.From the basic status of our country’s aging, a few suggestions are provided at the end ofthis paper.更多还原