城市居民生活用水需求影响因素研究

【作者】 胡峰；

【导师】 韩洪云；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 产业经济学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高,我国城市居民生活用水需求量逐年递增,而水资源短缺和水污染程度加重使得可利用的水资源越来越少,用水供给难以满足不断增长的需求。本文从需求的角度对城市居民生活用水进行研究,以期为解决城市居民生活用水供需矛盾提供依据。 中国的城市居民家庭用水情况同发达国家之间有许多不同之处,中国的生活用水基本为室内用水,水价结构以单一制水价为主,因而用水需求上也会存在较大差异。本文在对城市居民生活用水需求进行理论分析的基础上,以江苏省南通市为例,从宏观和微观两个层面对城市居民生活用水需求影响因素进行实证研究。 在宏观层面上,对南通市居民生活用水外部环境进行具体分析之后,分别利用双对数模型和Stone-Geary效用函数模型对南通市用水进行回归分析,建立起城市居民生活用水需求函数模型。结果表明,南通市当前居民收入增加对用水需求的拉动作用大于水价上涨对用水需求的抑制作用,水价上涨对减少用水需求的作用不明显。 在微观层面上,从居民家庭角度出发,研究家庭特征差异对家庭居民生活用水需求的影响。研究主要采用抽样方法,通过入户调查,重点分析了家庭人口年龄结构、用水方式、节水措施、户主(或配偶)受教育水平等因素对家庭用水需求的影响。在水价方面,南通市当前生活用水水价偏低,居民对水价的了解程度不够,对自身用水行为也未能充分重视,水价因素对城市居民生活用水需求的影响不明显。在节水方面,居民对当前南通市水资源和水污染状况缺乏准确认识,节水意识不强,同时居民对节水宣传的感知程度和对节水活动的参与程度都比较低,节水宣传和节水活动对提高居民环境意识以及节水意识的效果不明显,居民的主动节水行为没有形成普遍现象。关于家庭特征差异对生活用水需求的影响,人均居住面积同家庭用水需求之间存在正相关关系;居民家庭使用淋浴比使用浴缸的用水需求更多,机洗比手洗的用水需求多;采用节水措施的家庭比没有采用节水措施的家庭用水需求更少;家庭中14-150岁的用水人口对用水需求的影响最大,其次是60岁以上的老人,最后是13岁以下的儿童;随着户主(或配偶)受教育水平的提高,对用水需求的影响先上升后下降,户主(或配偶)受教育水平为大专时对用水需求的影响最大。此外,气温因素对家庭用水需求的影响最大。 针对当前城市居民生活用水现状,通过上调水价或者进行水价体制改革,提高节水宣传力度和效果,推进节水技术的发展,一定程度上将有助于缓解城市居民生活用水供需矛盾问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s economy has been developing fast and people’s living condition is getting better, residential water demand increases. However, shortage of water resources and serious pollution make it difficult to supply enough residential water for the increasing demand. The objective of this paper aims to find out factors affecting residential water demand, so as to provide some help for resolving the problem.In China, residential water is mostly used indoors, paid mainly by flat prices, and consumption pattern is quite different from developed countries, which make the difference of residential water demand. In this paper, not only residential water demand is analyzed theoretically, but also conducted at macro and micro levels with an example of Nantong city, Jiangsu province.At the macro level, both double-log model and Stone-Geary model of residential water demand of Nantong are established. The result suggests that income plays the more important role than water price to the residential water demand, the increases of water price have little influence on decreasing residential water demand.At the micro level, the selected families are interviewed for their family backgrounds, including members’ ages, living area per capita, water consumption pattern, water saving, educational level of the head or his spouse of the household, which are on the basis that family backgrounds are the main reason for different residential water demand. Further, a model of residential water demand is set up on the pooled data collected by the field works. The results are as follows: Firstly, the water price in Nantong is so low that residents pay little attention to their consumption, the influence of water price on residential water demand is not as effective as expected. Secondly, only part of residents know exactly the situation of water resources and water pollution of Nantong, few of them have strong beliefs to save water. Water conservation propaganda and programs exert little effect over residents’ beliefs of water conservation, as residents have received little information from propaganda and programs. It is not popular for residents to save water on their own initiative. Thirdly, of all factors in the research, living area per capita of the family has positive effect on residential water demand;shower needs more water than tubs, and families which wash their clothes by washing machine demand more water than by hands;water saving activities can decrease family’s residential water demand;in a family, members age from 14 to 60 use more water than old people above 60, and children under 13 use the least water;when educational level of head or his spouse of the household becomes higher, the influence over residential water demand increases first but then declines, and the residential water demand is influenced most by those who with the educational level of junior college. Besides, temperature plays the most important role to residential water demand.To resolve the problems of residential water shortage, some measures should betaken to alleviate the severe situation, such as increasing water price or changing the water price structure, making more efforts on water-conservation propaganda and technological development.更多还原