【作者】 马迪；

【导师】 丁堃；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 区域经济学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 随着中国房地产业的兴起和发展,房地产业在国民经济中的地位越来越重要。但接踵而来的问题也越来越多,如:一些地区住房供求的矛盾突出;房地产市场发展不平衡、房地产开发企业过多、盲目开发;房地产价格和投资增长过快,导致商品房长期过剩等等。鉴于此,建立房地产市场预警系统具有重要的理论和实际意义。 本文以宏观经济预警理论为依据,结合房地产经济周期波动理论,以综合模拟法为设计主线,构建了大连市房地产预警系统。以房地产业同国民经济协调关系、房地产市场供求协调关系及房地产业内部协调关系三大板块建立了房地产预警指标体系,并采用主成分分析法求得各大板块的预警指数及综合预警指数。 运用本文构建的房地产预警系统对大连市房地产进行实证分析,结果显示大连市房地产市场的发展大致分为三个阶段,即:调整回落阶段(1995年—1997年)、波动阶段(1997年—2000年)、趋热阶段(2000年—2004年)。综合起来看大连市房地产发展基本正常,但是自2001年以来,已经接近了基本正常的上限,也就是说如不适度管理,有从正常区间向基本正常区间发展的可能。而根据预测,如2005年保持2004年的条件,则2005年可能在基本正常区间以上,即轻度恶化。 实证分析说明,本文运用综合模拟法建立的房地产预警系统可以对城市的房地产发展进行评价,也可以发出预报和警报,对实践中房地产市场的预警具有较大的参考价值和现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The real estate now is playing more and more important role in Chinese economics with its development. There are so many problems in this field, e.g, the difference between supply and demand in some regions, disequilibrium of markets, overabundant companies, non-planned building, quick rise of price and investment and redundant houses. For the reasons above, it’s necessary to set up the early-warning system of real estate, from the respect of government management, which favors the supervision activities of real estate companies, guarantees the benefits of consumers, collocates the national resources rationally, assists the government to make decision and eventually promotes the healthy development of real estate industry.This article is based on the theory of early-warning theory of macroeconomic and has further discussion about current methodologies of early-warning system of real estate. Combining the characteristics of the periodically fluctuation of real estate market, it researched to build the structure of early-warning model of real estate. This article takes comprehensive simulation method as main line that early-warning system design. Using principal component analysis we get the weight and contribute rate of different index. Different early-warning index comprehend the comprehensive early-warming index of Real Estate. This article also takes index smooth method to forecast different early-warning index.The establishment of real estate early-warning system discussion in the paper will provides a much clearer view for people to understand the working mechanism of early-warning system, and is of great realistic and theoretical significance of the practice in real estate market.更多还原