【作者】 盛朕业；

【导师】 施应玲；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 技术经济及管理， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 本文第一部分对风险的定义与类型,风险管理进行概述。第二部分,根据电源项目投资的特点,在对电源项目投资风险的主要来源和一般规律论述的基础上对电源项目投资风险进行识别,列出电源项目投资风险因素清单;建立电源项目投资风险评价指标体系。文章的第三部分采用群AHP方法对传统AHP方法进行修正,利用专家判断力权值确定专家权重和各指标的权重,根据主要因素确定留用指标,从而建立了风险评价指标体系,并应用于某电源项目投资风险评价指标体系的设计。第四部分,在项目风险评价方法方面,根据电源项目投资评价的特点与难点,从模糊评价与灰色评价方法入手,利用灰色聚类理论得到指标灰色统计量,构造项目风险模糊隶属度矩阵,建立了一种模糊与灰色相结合的项目风险模糊灰色综合评价方法,充分利用了专家评判信息的模糊性与灰性。最后,将模型应用于电源项目投资风险评价中,说明了该模型的可行性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Firstly, the paper gave the overview to the definition of the risk, type of riskand risk management. In the second part , according to the characteristics ofpower project investment, on the foundation of discussing for the generaldisciplines and major source of power project investment risk, the paperidentified the risk of power project investment;listed the power investment riskfactors;established the indicator system for the power investment project riskevaluation. Thirdly in the risk evaluation index system subjection matrix washandled using group AHP method,and main indexes were made sure according towhich expert and index weight were fixed on using expert subjection weight.Consequently, risk evaluation index system was built that was applied to powerinvestment project risk’s evaluation. Fourthly, in the project risk evaluation,based on the characteristics and difficulties, starting with fuzzy evaluation andgrey evaluation and using grey clustering theory, grey statistics was educed.Lastly, the paper put the method into power investment project risk’scomprehensive evaluation, explained its feasibility and validated its validity.更多还原