【作者】 刘昊；

【导师】 艾欣；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 电气工程及其自动化， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 在复杂电网中,由微小扰动触发的电力系统连锁故障会导致电网大面积崩溃的灾难性后果。文章在具体分析国内外大停电事故的基础上,总结了具体连锁事件发展模式和大停电事故发展过程的一般规律,并根据电力系统连锁反应事故分析的需要,提出了新的可靠性指标。为了实现电网连锁故障的全面预测搜索,本文提出了循环完善搜索模式,并将连锁故障的搜索结果以树状结构事故链的形式表示出来,输入连锁反应事故集。该方法可以方便地求取导致连锁故障事件的最小割集、最小割集的发生概率以及由初始故障引发连锁故障的概率和各最小割集在此连锁反应事故中的重要程度,从而可以很好地反映电网的薄弱环节。另外,为避免“链数灾”的问题,本文引入模糊理论来减少树状结构事故链支链的数目。算例演示表明此套连锁故障分析方法具有良好的应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 In a complex power grid, cascading failures that are triggered by some smalldisturbances can induce global catastrophic effects over the entire network. On the basis ofmaking the concrete analysis of some large-scale blackouts both at home and abroad, thearticle summarizes concrete cascading incident development model and the universal law oflarge-scale blackout development, and puts forward the new reliability indexes according tothe needs of cascading failures analysis. In order to realize the comprehensive predictivesearch of cascading failures of the power grid, the paper puts forward the circulatingperfectible search mode, and gets the search results of cascading failures in the form of faultchain figure of tree structure, which are input the collection of cascading failures. It caneasily obtain minimal cut sets and their probabilities and the probability of the cascadingfailures caused by initial fault and important degrees of minimal cut sets, which can reflectthe weak link of power grid. In addition, in order to avoid the problem of " the curse of chain", the paper introduces the fuzzy theory to reduce the number of fault chain figure of treestructure. Calculation example demonstrates that these methods have a good value toanalyze cascading failures.更多还原