【作者】 张萍；

【导师】 傅磊；

【作者基本信息】 首都经济贸易大学 ， 会计学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 随着中国经济的发展,有效的资本市场已成为人们关注的焦点。2001年证监会的市场监管思路出现了重大调整,从风险控制转向风险揭示,接连出台的各种规范、准则、条例已经初步构建了一个较为完整的信息披露体系。在上市公司所披露的信息中,会计信息一直占据着主导地位。会计信息从反映的时间来区分,可分为历史信息和未来信息,目前会计系统所提供的信息大多为历史信息,但事实上投资者更关心的是未来信息的提供,因此作为未来财务信息的重要组成部分—盈利预测信息已经开始广受重视。本文正是从此角度出发,通过规范研究与实证研究相结合的方法对我国IPO上市公司盈利预测信息披露自愿性进行研究。 首先,从理论角度分析了盈利预测信息的供求关系及披露的成本效益,探讨上市公司披露盈利预测的动机,之后对我国盈利预测相关制度进行说明,概括其发展特点及其制度背景,为实证研究做准备。 然后,从实证角度出发,对政策允许自愿性披露后的深市、沪市2001年3月15日至2004年12月31日首次发行股票的上市公司盈利预测信息披露的自愿性情况进行研究,并考虑了公司治理、公司业绩等方面的影响因素,对影响盈利预测的各变量进行检验。最后结论是:上市公司盈利预测自愿性在一定程度上受公司规模、独立董事的比例以及IPO上市公司的资产负债率的影响。公司规模越大,实力越强,披露的自愿性越强;独立董事人数占董事会人数的比例越高,风险意识越强,盈利预测披露的自愿性越低;资产负债率越高,投资风险较大,盈利预测自愿性披露程度越低。 最后结合我国的公司治理情况,从公司内部治理与外部治理方面,对我国IPO上市公司提出建议,最后结合我国盈利预测制度,对我国上市公司盈利预测相关制度提出建议,比如建议实行强制性的信息披露制度、建立健全IPO上市公司盈利预测信息披露的免责制度及民事承担制度,为我国盈利预测制度建设提供一些参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The accounting information differentiates from the reflection time, might divide into the historical information and the future information, at present accountant system provides the information mostly will be the historical information, but the investors will consider more in future information provision. Therefore as a part of the future finance information —profit forecast information will be attached importance to. The article is precisely the goal embarks, analysis system construction influence in the profit forecast level of voluntary disclosure of information through the standard research and the empirical research.First, the text analyses supply-demand and cost-benefit of the profit forecast information from the theoretical perspective and the related disclosure forms, then discuss the forecast profit motive of listed companies, then introduced foreign profit forecast disclosure system on the basis of our profit forecast system related note, summarized its characteristics and its system development background for empirical research preparation.Then, from the empirical perspective, after the policy allows for voluntary disclosure in Shenzhen and Shanghai on April 30, 2000 to December 31, 2004 listed companies issuing new shares and March 6, 2001 to December 31, 2004 the first issue of shares of listed companies made profits forecasts reliability systematic study and to consider the corporate governance, the impact of factors such as company performance, the variables affecting the profit forecast for testing. Final conclusion is: to some extent, listed companies profit forecast reliability is effected by the size of the firm and the forecast interval. Company size is greater, the greater the difficulty of forecasting, and reliability is lower;the longer the forecast interval, the lower the reliability is.Finally considering the profit forecast system in our country, the paper put forward the proposals in profit forecast system of our listed companies from the demand and supply of the forecast, for instance vigorously develops the organization investor as the main investors in the securities market, thus makes the effective market demand;at the same time improving profit forecast level of voluntary of listed companies , thus building effective in the market.更多还原