【作者】 张辉鹏；

【导师】 童恒庆；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 计算机应用技术， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济体制改革和对外开放的深入发展,市场竞争机制在我国经济发展中起着越来越大的作用。要想在激烈的市场竞争中立于不败之地,相关的政府、单位及个人,都需要对当前的经济运行状况有一个客观的判断,并对市场的变化和经济的发展形势进行有效的预测和估计。基于上述需求作者设计实现了宏观经济预测系统。 本系统是一套用于经济动态分析、预测的应用软件系统。系统充分将数理统计、计量经济学、计算机数据库技术、网络编程技术等多学科知识紧密融为一体。该系统以先进技术手段和科学、专业的方法优化整合各类宏观经济信息资源,对宏观经济运行状况进行监测、分析、预测,为计划管理部门的宏观经济分析预测工作提供应用平台和分析工具,为经济信息资源管理提供数据库系统支持,为宏观经济决策提供技术支持。 本系统的开发是建立在ASP.NET平台上,系统由数据模块、预测模块、预警模块、日常办公模块、专业研究模块组成。作者在系统中承担预测模块的开发设计工作。根据实际需求和现实技术情况,作者设计了以B/S结构为主,以C/S结构为辅,两者有机结合的四层结构。系统采用这种结构具有以下优点:保证系统的安全、保证系统的健壮、保证真正实现瘦客户端的要求。 本文由六章内容构成。第一章主要介绍了系统开发的社会背景和技术背景,宏观经济预测工作的国内外现状,系统开发的意义、目标和主要任务等情况。第二章概括介绍了.NET框架相关概念和技术结构并分析了其优势。第三章是对宏观经济预测的学习总结,主要学习了它的概念、主要技术、预测步骤、指标体系建立等与系统开发密切相关的知识。第四章是本文的重点篇章,详细介绍了作者的设计开发过程和实现情况。第五章是对系统开发中遇到的技术难题的讨论,重点阐述了作者解决问题的过程和由此得到的一系列创新。第六章是对全文的总结,指出了作者在项目开发中完成的工作,同时也说明了系统的不足之处及今后改进的方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 Developing with the economic reform and the opening to the outside world, the market competition mechanism is playing the more and more major role in our country economy development. Hoping to be in an impregnable position in the intense market competition, the correlation government, the unit and individual, all need to have an objective judgment to the current economical movement condition, and carries on the effective forecast and the estimate to the market change and the economical development situation. The author design and realize the macroscopic economical forecast system according to the current needs.This system is an application system which is applied in the economical dynamic analysis and the economical forecast. The system closely merges the mathematical statistic, the econometrics, the computer database technology, the network technology into one organic whole. This system optimizes all kinds of macroscopic economic information resources by the advanced technology and the science and specialized method, carries on the monitor, the analysis, the forecast to the macroscopic economical movement condition, provides the platform and the analysis tool for the department’s macroscopic economic analysis forecast work, provides the database system support for the economic information resource management, provides the technical support for the macroscopic economical decision-making.The development of system is based on ASP.NET platform, and the system is composed of the data module, the forecast module, the early warning module, the daily work module, the specialized research module. The author undertakes design and development work of the forecast module. According to the actual demand and the realistic technical situation, the author has designed a four-level software structure which combines B/S structure and C/S structure. With this kind of structure there have the merits: guaranteed the security, guaranteed the vigorous and healthy, guaranteed the truly thin client.This paper constitutes by six chapters of contents. First chapter mainly introduced the social background and the technical background of the project development, domestic and foreign present situations of macroscopic economical forecast as well as the significance, the goal and the primary mission of project development. The second chapter brief introduced .NET framework, including its concept, its technology structure and its superiority. Third chapter is a study summary to the macroscopic economical forecast. Fourth chapter is a key chapter ofthis article, introduced author’s design and the realization situation. Fifth chapter discuss the technical difficult problems which meet to the project development. Sixth chapter is a paper summary, have pointed out author’s work which completes in the project development;also explain deficiency as well as the next improvement direction.更多还原