【作者】 李拓宇；

【导师】 董承章；

【作者基本信息】 中央财经大学 ， 产业经济学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 财政风险是一种公共风险,区别于私人风险,它是应当由政府来承担的、将对社会造成损害的风险,是经济全球化时代各国经济发展中的一个重大问题。自20世纪80年代开始,国外已经开始了对财政风险的研究。中国经过20多年的改革,在经济建设和财政方面取得的成就是有目共睹的,但遇到的问题和困难也很多。随着我国积极财政政策的实施,财政政策和财政风险已成为现阶段我国政界和学术界研究的热点问题之一。西方主流的经济学派对财政政策所持的观点并不一致。凯恩斯主义者都主张国家干预经济生活,采用赤字财政政策或与货币政策相配合以实现经济的稳定增长或收入均等。新保守主义学派反对国家干预,承认财政政策存在一定的时滞。非均衡增长理论认为政府愿意扩大支出,并且认为财政支出的增长是一种跳跃式发展的过程。总的看来,财政政策的基本工具是税收和财政支出,主要的政策目标是经济增长、物价稳定。衡量财政风险的一些指标警戒值在国际上已经有了统一的认识或是由国际组织对其作了相关规定。例如财政赤字率的欧盟警戒线是 3%,一般发展中国家的警戒线是 5%;国债负担率的欧盟警戒线是 60%,一般发展中国家是 45%;居民消费物价指数在国际上没有统一的警戒线。国内的学者从20世纪末期开始对财政风险进行研究,财政部最早将财政风险表述为财政赤字和债务危机,一些学者近年来的研究则认为财政风险是指财政不能提供足够的财力满足国家机器的运转、无法有效履行其自身职能,以至于经济、社会的稳定与发展都受到损害的可能性。任何一种宏观经济政策都有时滞, 在制定政策时,除了考虑其经济效应外,还必须考虑经济系统对政策的反馈时间。在对财政政策工具、财政风险和政策时滞的定量分析中,IS-LM模型、乘数分析法、相关系数法、投入产出分析法、经典计量经济方法如最小二乘法、联立方程组模型等分析工具和方法得到了广泛的应用。财政政策的主要工具是税收和财政支出,由收入和支出的总量、结构衍生出的很多指标都成为判断财政风险情况的标准。因此,本文从最基本的财政收入和财政支出出发,对财政收支、财政赤字和财政政策的时滞进行了研究。本文的创新之处在于采用最新的统计数据和对现代计量经济学中主流模型的应用,差分的自回归移动平均模型 ARIMA、误差修正模型 ECM、向量自回归模型 VAR 等,其中还包括单位根检验、季节调整、脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术的使用。本文在第一章概述了财政风险研究的必要性和国内外研究的现状。第二章简介了西更多还原

【Abstract】 Finance risk is a sort of public risk which is different from private risk. It is charged withgovernment, and harmful to society, which is one of the important problems of developing inglobal economy times. Finance risk has been studied aboard since 1980s. China has got greatachievements at economic contrasting and finance after innovation more than 20 years, butthere are still many problems and difficulties. Along with active finance policy, finance policyand finance risk has been one of the hot issues in political circles and academia.The point of views of western prevail economic school are not the same. Keynesianclaims that government should intervene to economic, and adopt deficit policy or match withmonetary policy to actualize stable economic increase or equal income. New conservatismschool opposes government intervention, and admits that there is hysteresis in finance policy.Disequilibrium increase theory considers that government will enlarge expenditure, and itsincrease is a jumping process. As a whole, the main tools of finance policy are tax andexpenditure;the main aims are economic increasing and stable price.Some index guard lines of scaling finance risk are international uniform or regulated bysome international organization. For example, the guard line of finance risk rate is 3%, that ofdeveloping country is 5%;the guard line of national debt weight is 60%, that of developingcountry is 45%;the guard line of inhabitant consume index is not uniform.The domestic scholar has carried on research to the financial risk since latter stage of the20th century, the Ministry of Finance describes the financial risk as the financial deficit anddebt crisis initially, some scholar research in recent years think financial risk refer to thepossibility the stability and development of economy , the society is both damaged becausefinance can not offer enough financial resources to meet operation of state apparatus or unableto fulfill its own function effectively. Any kind of macro economic policy exist hysteresis,while making the policy, we must consider not only its economic effect but also the feedbacktime to the policy of economic system . In the quantitative analysis of financial policy tool ,financial risk and policy, some tools and methods such as IS-LM model, multiplier analyticapproach, law of coefficient correlation, input and output analytic approach, classicseconometric method such as ordinary least square method, simultaneous equations groupmodel ,etc. are widely used.The main tool of the financial policy is tax revenue and expenditure. Many indexesderiving of the change of receipts and expenditures by total amount or structure have becomethe standard of judging financial risk situation. So this text analyses fiscal revenue andexpenditure, financial deficit and hysteresis from most basic fiscal revenue and expenditure.The innovation herein lies in adopting the latest statistics and to the application of the majormodel in modern econometrics, for instance autoregression integrated moving-average model(ARIMA), error correction model (ECM), vectorial autoregression model (VAR),etc.,including unit root test, season adjustment, pulse respond function and variance decomposetechnology.This text summarizes the necessity and current situation of financial risk study both athome and abroad in chapter one and briefly introduce financial policy view of the maineconomics school of the west in chapter two.Chapter three has predicted the fiscal revenues of our country at first. The steady andeffective growth of the fiscal revenues is prerequisite of government’s normal operation andthe every social undertaking development. The scientific prediction of the total amount of thefiscal revenues will offer valuable reference to financial budget in the future of our country.Secondly, the tax revenue is a main source of the fiscal revenues;the tax revenue generates animportant impact on economic growth. According to both economic theory and data, there iscointegration relation between the tax revenues and gross domestic product of our country. So,we also analyzed the cointegration relation between tax revenues and gross domestic productin chapter three, get long-term balanced relation and short-term fluctuant relation by errorcorrection model.Most scholars at home and abroad consider that the financial deficit is harmful, andfinancial deficit will initiate the inflation. As to this, this text employs ECM model to exactlyanalyze the cointegration of financial deficit and price index of our country in chapter five.According to the model, the financial deficit can not certainly initiate the inflation. As long asadopting effective means to control the total amount of currency, the anticipative inflationwould not occur.Hysteresis exists in any economic policy. In order to achieve the anticipated goal ofpolicy, we must know the hysteresis of the policy. So this text analyzed the hysteresis andeffect of financial policy tool to economic growth and inflation in chapter six.Main research work and conclusion herein are as follows:(1) ARIMA model of the fiscal revenues adopts the annual data;the sample area is from1950 to 2004. Unit root test proves that fiscal revenues series is integrated of order one. Thepredicting precision of ARMA model made by its I(1) series is 1.05%. This model predictsthat if calculated at the fixed price of 2004, the fiscal revenues of our country were expectedto be close to 7,000 billion yuan in 2010.(2) Still adopting the annual data, this text made a cointegration model of tax revenueand gross domestic product, the sample area is from 1952 to 2004. Have dispelled the pricefactor in data and heteroscedasticity of model, cointegration test proved that there is acointegration relation between the tax revenue (TAX) and gross domestic product (GDP).ECM model indicates that increasing one unit △LNTAXt can add 35.60% units of△LNGDPt, but in long-term, increasing one unit LNTAXt-1 can reduce 0.0208 units ofLNGDPt-1, that is to say tax revenue can not grow simultaneously with economy in thelong-term.(3) Cointegration regression of the price index (PI) and the financial deficit (BA), thesample area and modeling method are the same. The model indicates that the short-termrelation between financial deficit and price index is △PIt=0.0935△BAt, shown as positivecorrelation. The long-term relation is PIt=-82.5209BAt, shown as negative correlation. Itmeans that the financial deficit could not definitely cause the inflation. So long as adoptingappropriate means to offset deficit, the expected inflation would not occur.(4) In order to guarantee the precision of VAR model, we chose the monthly data fromJan. of 2000 to Nov. of 2005 in sample to set up VAR model with 3 variables which arefinancial budget expenditure (BU), goods retail price index (PI) and gross domestic product(GDP), then test the data after season adjustment to find there is Grainger causality in thevariables planning to enter the model. We can find that the response time of GDP to financialbudget expenditure is 5 months, the response time of price to the financial budget expenditureis 7 months by making VAR (2) model adopting pulse respond and variance decomposetechnology.According to the conclusion of the model and analysis on relevant economic theories, theauthor thinks, for keeping finance security and economic stable increasing, (1) Expandproportion of fiscal revenues and expenditure to GDP on the total amount. (2) About therevenue structure, the increase of the tax revenue can’t depend on increasing the macroburden of taxation, but should starts with confirming the source of tax revenue and tax raterationally and perfecting the tax collection and management system, otherwise restrict theeconomic growth;The expenditure should be invested in the public field more. (3) Issuecurrency appropriately to offset financial deficit in order to reduce the great amount of debtburden of our country. (4) Consider policy hysteresis while using the financial policy tool.更多还原